The Germans face a tough test in Spain. EuroLeague prediction: Valencia vs Bayern
Valencia Basket
Bayern Munich
Valencia and Bayern meet on Thursday, November 12, in Round 11 of the EuroLeague regular season. The game will be played at Roig Arena in Spain, with tip-off scheduled for 20:30 Central European Time. I’m backing a winner in this matchup.
H2H and statistical facts
- Both teams have won their last three games in a row.
- All three of Bayern’s EuroLeague wins this season have come on the road.
- Bayern have never beaten Valencia on their home court, losing all nine meetings.
Valencia: high-powered offense and confidence after a winning run
Valencia head into this game on the back of three straight wins across all competitions. On November 5, the Spaniards beat Olimpia Milano 84–73 on the road in the EuroLeague, then edged San Pablo Burgos 100–93 in the Spanish league three days later. Their domestic performance was particularly impressive: they came back from a 14-point halftime deficit to turn the game around.
Valencia have won seven of their ten EuroLeague games and sit third in the standings. They boast one of the most efficient offenses in the competition, averaging 95.8 points per game—the best mark among all teams. But the Spaniards are more than just an attacking force: their point differential stands at +72.
Valencia have picked up three wins in their last five EuroLeague games, including victories over Fenerbahçe and Paris, while losing to Maccabi and Barcelona. The team’s standout player is point guard TJ Shorts, who averages 16.9 points and 5.6 assists per game. He sets the pace and orchestrates the offense, and his chemistry with his teammates is often key to Valencia’s success.
Valencia also have some injury concerns. Nathan Reuvers is dealing with a foot injury, while Mirotic has missed the team’s last two games. His availability against Bayern remains an important factor when assessing the depth of Valencia’s rotation. Even without a full roster, however, the Spaniards retain plenty of firepower. Another noteworthy stat: Valencia rank among the EuroLeague’s best teams in ball security and defensive rebounding—both especially important against an opponent that turns the ball over frequently.
Bayern: first EuroLeague win in a long time
Bayern have also won their last three games, but their results across competitions paint a very different picture from their EuroLeague campaign. On November 5, the Munich side snapped their losing streak in the competition with a 99–95 road win over ASVEL. Then, on November 8, they continued their winning run in the German league, routing Würzburg 94–73 away from home. Bayern were particularly dominant in the third quarter, outscoring their opponents by 26 points.
Bayern’s EuroLeague situation, however, remains difficult. After ten rounds, they have managed just three wins against seven losses and sit 17th in the standings. Before beating ASVEL, the Munich side had lost four straight games, falling to Crvena Zvezda by 30 points, as well as to Barcelona, Dubai and Beşiktaş. Bayern average 86.8 points per game but concede 94.5, one of the worst marks in the competition. Their defensive issues are particularly evident: opponents regularly find open shots and easy scoring opportunities.
The main scoring burden falls on Duane Washington, who averages 15.3 points per game. The American guard can create his own shot and becomes especially important when Bayern are chasing the game.
Unlike Valencia, Bayern have yet to show consistency over the course of a full game. The Munich side turn the ball over too often, while their defense frequently struggles against quick, skilled opposing guards. The visitors do have some positives, though: they can put up points, as their game against ASVEL showed, and the win over Würzburg should give them a confidence boost.
What’s the best bet?
Valencia look like the favorites heading into this matchup. The Spaniards have a more potent offense, take better care of the ball and have been far more consistent throughout the season. The visitors have certainly gained momentum from their three-game winning streak, but their domestic success does not erase their EuroLeague struggles. Bayern will need an almost perfect defensive performance to get a positive result. I’m backing the home team to win with a -4.5-point handicap.
