The cup tie could go to penalties: Chelsea vs Leeds prediction

Chelsea vs Leeds prediction Photo: dazn.com / Author unknown
EFL Cup (Carabao Cup) (Round 3) 09 sep 2026, 15:15
Finished
6 : 3
England, London, Stamford Bridge
Cole Palmer
53' (P) 55'
Pedro Neto
60'
Danny Welbeck
65' 90' + 4
Valentin Barco
80'
24'
Tarik Muharemovic
48'
Brenden Aaronson
75'
Dominic Calvert-Lewin

The third-round EFL Cup match between Chelsea and Leeds will take place on 9 September at Stamford Bridge. Both teams came through the previous round comfortably, while their recent head-to-head meetings suggest the hosts should not expect an easy night.

Chelsea: first setback under Xabi Alonso

Xabi Alonso's side began the season with two Premier League victories, but lost 2-1 to Arsenal in the previous round. Chelsea opened the scoring in the second minute through Morgan Rogers, but were unable to hold on to their lead.

In the EFL Cup, the London side previously beat Luton 2-0. Chelsea have also been remarkably consistent in the third round of this competition, having been eliminated at this stage only once in the last 15 years.

Leeds: unbeaten in the new season

Leeds have started the campaign confidently and are still unbeaten, recording two wins and two draws in their opening four matches. In the EFL Cup, they eliminated Nottingham Forest with a 2-0 victory.

Daniel Farke's side also performed well against Chelsea last season. Leeds won 3-1 at home, drew 2-2 at Stamford Bridge and suffered only a narrow 1-0 defeat in the FA Cup semi-final.

Match facts and head-to-head record

  • Chelsea have won their previous 10 cup ties against Leeds.
  • Leeds have lost only two of their last 16 competitive matches since the beginning of March.
  • Leeds collected four points from two Premier League matches against Chelsea last season.

The visitors can take the tie deep: Chelsea vs Leeds prediction

Chelsea remain favourites thanks to their squad depth and home advantage, but possible rotation significantly narrows the gap between the teams. Leeds are well organised and have already shown that they know how to contain the London side.

The hosts often start matches aggressively, but the visitors look disciplined enough to take the tie all the way to a penalty shootout. In that scenario, Chelsea would still hold a slight advantage.

Prediction on game Both teams to score - Yes
Odds: 1.66
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