The champion begins title defense without Ronaldo: prediction for the Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh match on August 15, 2026
On Saturday, August 15, at Al-Awwal Park in Riyadh, Al-Nassr will host Al-Fateh in the opening round of the 2026/27 Saudi Pro League season. The reigning champions kick off their title defense at home and are considered overwhelming favorites, but Angelos Postecoglou’s preseason was far from flawless, and according to the latest reports, Cristiano Ronaldo will miss the start of the campaign.
- Also read: The hosts go all-in after defeat in Dublin. Prediction for the Egnatia vs Shamrock Rovers match.
Al-Nassr: Postecoglou’s new system still experiencing teething problems
Last season was historic for Al-Nassr: the team earned 86 points and clinched the Saudi Pro League title for the first time since 2019. Over the summer, the club changed managers—Angelos Postecoglou took charge, intent on preserving his trademark aggressive football with high pressing and plenty of players in attack. The champions’ squad still looks formidable: Sadio Mane, Joao Felix, and Kingsley Coman give the coach a wealth of attacking options, and the midfield was recently bolstered by Samu Costa.
However, the team’s preseason results suggest caution when evaluating the hosts. Al-Nassr lost 1-2 to Benfica B, beat Merida 2-0, then conceded four goals to Estrela in a 2-4 defeat, and fell 0-2 to Almeria. In total, the champions suffered three losses in four friendlies, and in three of those matches, their defense allowed opponents to score.
Crucially, it appears Postecoglou will have to do without Ronaldo in the season’s first official match. The Portuguese star is returning late to full training after the World Cup and personal matters, with his first start expected in the next round. In addition, Al-Nassr’s unavailable list includes Sultan Al-Ghannam, Mubarak Al-Buainain, and Raged Najjar.
Al-Fateh: New coach and a chance to exploit the favorite’s problems
The visitors are also turning a new page. After Jose Gomes’ departure, Saudi specialist Khaled Al-Atwi took the helm. Last season, Al-Fateh finished in the lower half of the table, but the squad had enough individual quality up front: Mourad Batna and Matias Vargas were among their most productive players. Over the summer, the club parted ways with Sofiane Bendebka and Wesley Delgado, forcing the new coaching staff to partially rebuild the established structure.
Al-Fateh’s preseason was mixed as well. At the end of July, they suffered a heavy 0-3 loss to Mallorca, but in August drew 1-1 with Marbella, coming from behind after conceding first. These results don’t yet suggest the team is ready to challenge the champions on equal footing, but the visitors certainly have what it takes to find the net against Al-Nassr’s unstable back line.
Match facts and head-to-head stats
- Al-Nassr have won 17 of the last 25 head-to-head matches against Al-Fateh.
- Both teams scored in 17 of those 25 encounters—68% of the time.
- Over 2.5 total goals were scored in 68% of their head-to-head matches.
- Last season, Al-Nassr thrashed this opponent 5-1 at home.
- Al-Nassr conceded at least one goal in three of their four summer friendlies.
Ronaldo’s absence shouldn’t close the game: prediction for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh
The difference in quality between these teams is massive, and even without Ronaldo, Al-Nassr have more than enough talent to create several scoring chances. Mane, Felix, and Coman are all capable of breaking down defenses on their own, and home advantage makes a goal from the hosts almost a given.
But betting on a straightforward win for the champions at such low odds isn’t enticing. A much more attractive wager is both teams to score. Postecoglou is still constructing his new system, his side takes plenty of risks pushing forward, and they’ve been prone to defensive lapses in preseason. Al-Fateh may lack the same level of personnel, but Batna and Vargas can punish the hosts for leaving space—especially considering Al-Nassr’s defensive absences.
The head-to-head history also points toward a high-scoring game: both sides have scored in 68% of their previous meetings. At the time of writing, odds for this outcome are hovering around the desired mark, reaching 1.78.
Prediction: both teams to score—yes.
