St. Pauli vs Werder: prediction, head-to-head and probable line-ups – February 22, 2026
In one of the most intriguing fixtures of Bundesliga Matchday 23, St. Pauli will host Werder Bremen at the Millerntor Stadium in Hamburg on Sunday for the fierce Northern Derby. Both sides are entrenched in the relegation zone, and a victory here could prove pivotal in their fight for top-flight survival.
Match preview
Just two weeks ago, St. Pauli clinched a crucial 2-1 win over Stuttgart – only their fourth victory of the season – rekindling their hopes of survival under Alexander Blessin. However, their momentum was abruptly halted in the following round as they suffered a heavy 0-4 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen. The Hamburg side now sits three points adrift of safety, with every game taking on the intensity of a final.
At home, though, the "Pirates" have looked far more assured: they are unbeaten in four straight matches at the Millerntor, including wins over Stuttgart and Heidenheim. Blessin appears to have found a better balance, and the return of several key defenders provides a further boost. The critical question is whether they can keep their nerve in the season’s decisive moments.
Werder, just two points ahead of their rivals, are also in direct relegation danger. Daniel Thioune’s side have lost four of their last five Bundesliga games, managing to score only once in that stretch. Even more concerning, Bremen have failed to find the net in seven of their last nine official matches – a worrying sign ahead of this crucial visit.
Thioune’s appointment has drawn mixed reactions from the fans, and his tenure began with back-to-back defeats to Freiburg and Bayern, doing little to ease the tension around the club. Their away form is a major headache: three consecutive road losses and not a single goal scored in their last four away games. In these circumstances, psychological pressure could become the decisive factor.
Probable line-ups
- St. Pauli: Vasilj, Ando, Smith, Mets, Saliakas, Sands, Irvine, Pyrka, Sinani, Fujita, Kaars
- Werder: Backhaus, Sugawara, Stark, Friedl, Agu, Stage, Lynen, Puertas, Njinmah, Topp, Schmid
Key facts and head-to-head
- Werder have failed to score in seven of their last nine official matches.
- St. Pauli are unbeaten at home in their last four games.
- Both teams are in the relegation zone, separated by just two points in the standings.
Prediction
Given the visitors’ current struggles and ongoing issues up front, St. Pauli have a strong chance to capitalize on home support. The match is unlikely to be high-scoring, but the hosts appear slightly more balanced at the moment.
