Spain (W) vs Portugal (W) prediction, H2H and probable lineups - July 3, 2025
Spain
Portugal
One of the standout clashes of the UEFA Women's Euro 2025 will see Spain take on Portugal on July 3 at the Wankdorf Stadium in Bern, Switzerland. I’m offering a prediction on the outcome of this contest with an attractive odds value.
Match preview
The Spanish national team, the reigning world champions, head into Euro 2025 with one main goal: to capture the European title for the first time in their history. La Roja breezed through qualifying, winning five out of six matches, and come into the tournament in red-hot form—five consecutive victories, including a hard-fought win over Japan (3-1) and commanding victories over Portugal (7-1 and 4-2) in the Nations League. Even without some key players, Spain boasts one of the most potent attacks in Europe.
Under Montse Tomé, this squad has enormous experience, but the biggest challenge remains breaking their “quarterfinal curse,” having been stopped at that stage in each of the last three European Championships. Against Portugal, Spain are clear favorites, even with Aitana Bonmatí and Teresa Abelleira sidelined. Alexia Putellas will marshal the midfield, while young Vicky López could emerge as one of the tournament’s breakout stars.
Portugal reached the finals the hard way, first easily dispatching Azerbaijan, then narrowly edging past the Czech Republic in the playoffs. Francisco Neto’s side failed to get out of the group at both Euro 2017 and Euro 2022, and now aim to rewrite that history. However, their Nations League campaign was unconvincing, finishing bottom of a group featuring Spain, England, and Belgium.
Personnel issues are also a concern: no Carolina Mendes, and attacking leader Kika Nazareth is still recovering from injury. The main hopes rest on the strike duo of Diana and Jéssica Silva, but even they will be under heavy pressure from Spain’s ball-dominant midfield and defense. To make matters worse, Portugal are winless in their last five matches.
Probable lineups
- Spain (W): Coll, Batlle, Méndez, Aleixandri, Carmona, López, Guijarro, Putellas, Caldentey, Pina, González
- Portugal (W): Teixeira, F. Pinto, Costa, Seiça, Borges, Jacinto, Norton, T. Pinto, Amado, D. Silva, J. Silva
Match facts and head-to-head
- Spain have won both of their last matches against Portugal by a combined score of 11-3.
- Portugal are winless in their last five games.
- Spain have not kept a clean sheet in their last eight matches.
Prediction
Portugal are unlikely to withstand the relentless Spanish attack, even considering La Roja’s recent defensive lapses. The gap in quality is significant, and if Spain play to their potential, this could end up being a rout. Our pick: “Spain to win with a -2.5 handicap” at odds of 1.82.
