Smouha vs Al Ahly: prediction, head-to-head and probable lineups – 23 February 2026
The Round 19 clash of the 2025/26 Egyptian Premier League season will take place on Monday, February 23 at the Borg El Arab Stadium in Alexandria. In this showdown, Smouha faces Cairo giants Al Ahly. Despite the visitors’ favorite status, the Alexandrians have shown gritty resilience this season, making this away fixture a real challenge for the 'Red Devils.'
Match preview
Smouha, led by Ahmed Abdelaziz, currently sits 8th in the table with 25 points. The team is having a respectable campaign, though they suffered narrow 0-1 defeats to Zamalek and Al-Ittihad in their last two outings. Still, Smouha are a force to be reckoned with at home: in early February, they sensationally defeated one of the league leaders, Pyramids (2-1). Smouha relies on a compact defense and the finishing prowess of Pape Abass Badji, the club’s top scorer this season.
Smouha’s main advantage for this match is the absence of significant personnel losses and a fresher physical condition compared to their opponents. The squad had a full week to prepare, while their rivals are stretched between domestic competition and CAF Champions League duties. The 'Blues' have only lost once in eight home league games this season, and in front of their fans, they are likely to opt for a cautious approach, aiming to shut down the flanks and stifle Al Ahly’s rapid wide attacks.
Al Ahly, under Danish manager Jess Thorup, are fourth (30 points) with a game in hand. The team is enduring a grueling schedule: on February 15, they played a tough CAF Champions League match against Morocco’s FAR (0-0), and on February 19, they faced El Gouna in the league (1-0). Thorup has openly complained about his key players’ fatigue and a spate of injuries that have blunted their attacking edge. Nevertheless, Al Ahly remain unbeaten in their last 12 league games, displaying champion-like pragmatism and a knack for grinding out results.
The injury crisis for the visitors remains severe: key wingers Mahmoud "Trezeguet" Hassan and Ahmed "Zizo" Sayed will miss out due to muscle injuries. Midfielder Emam Ashour, recently back in team training, is also a doubt. With his main stars sidelined, Thorup is forced to rely on Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane and winter signing Yelcim Camoes, who is still adapting to the team. Al Ahly have historically dominated this fixture (unbeaten in their last six meetings with Smouha), but the current lack of creative options could make breaching the Alexandrians’ defense a tough task.
Key facts and head-to-head
- Smouha have conceded in four consecutive matches.
- Six of Smouha’s last eight games have seen fewer than three goals scored.
- Al Ahly are unbeaten in their last eight matches across all competitions.
- Al Ahly have kept a clean sheet in each of their last four games.
- In the last ten head-to-heads, Al Ahly have a clear edge: six wins, while Smouha have triumphed twice. Two matches ended in a draw.
- Their most recent encounter ended in a 2-0 victory for Al Ahly.
Probable lineups
- Smouha: Mayhoub - Mostafa, Hafez, Dabash, Amer - El Sisi, Fawzi, El Ghandour - Amadi, Fekri, Badji
- Al Ahly: El-Shenawy - Hany, Ibrahim, Marei, Belammari - Bencharki, Dieng, Attia, Ashour - Camoes, Romdhane
Prediction
I expect this match to be tight and low-scoring. Al Ahly arrive in Alexandria depleted by injuries and fatigue, which will force them to play with extra caution. Smouha, meanwhile, after back-to-back defeats, will primarily focus on keeping a clean sheet against the giants. Given the absence of Trezeguet and Zizo for the visitors and Smouha’s solid home record against top sides, don’t expect a goal fest. My prediction: total under 2.5 goals.
