Simeone pushing for another win: Alavés vs Atlético Madrid prediction
Atlético and Alavés will meet on Saturday, October 10, in the eighth round of La Liga. The match will be played at the Mendizorroza Stadium in Vitoria, with kickoff scheduled for 16:15 CET. I am backing a winner in this game.
H2H and statistical facts
- Alavés have earned 9 of their 11 points this season at home.
- The Basques are winless in their last three matches.
- Atlético are on a three-match winning streak.
- Madrid have not beaten Alavés away from home since 2021.
- At least three goals have been scored in each of Atlético's last seven matches.
Alavés
Alavés sit sixth after seven rounds with 11 points. It is worth noting that Kike Sánchez Flores' side have been particularly impressive at home: they have collected nine points from four matches at Mendizorroza, losing only to Valencia. This makes the upcoming meeting far more difficult for Atlético than the gap in class might suggest.
Their recent results, however, have somewhat slowed Alavés' momentum. After an emphatic 5-2 win over Osasuna, the team lost to Racing Santander and Valencia before drawing 0-0 with Athletic Club in Bilbao. In their latest match, Alavés focused almost entirely on defending and managed to keep a clean sheet even after Oihan Sancet's penalty.
The international break was an unusual one for the team. Following the draw with Athletic Club, the players were given several days off, while full training only resumed on Tuesday. In addition, the club did not play a friendly during the break. Such a lengthy pause could affect Alavés' match rhythm.
At the same time, the hosts have one crucial advantage — Mendizorroza. Alavés have earned nine of their 11 points in this league campaign at home, conceding just three goals at their own stadium. Kike Sánchez Flores' side are capable of sitting deep, packing the midfield and looking for opportunities on the counterattack.
Atlético Madrid
Atlético head into the eighth round of La Liga in second place with 16 points. Diego Simeone's team have won five of their seven matches, drawn one and suffered just one defeat. The Madrid side are also returning to league action after a hugely important 2-1 win over Real Madrid.
Atlético's start to the season has been mixed. After beating Málaga, the team drew with Villarreal, then comfortably saw off Sevilla but unexpectedly lost 3-0 to Athletic Club. Since then, Madrid have produced three straight wins — against Real Sociedad, Osasuna and Real Madrid. Their attacking output during this run has been particularly impressive: they scored nine goals across those three matches and kept clean sheets in two of them.
The major question ahead of the match is how quickly Atlético's players can return to their club rhythm after the extended international break. At the start of October, Simeone did not have the full squad at his disposal, with 16 players called up by their national teams. However, key players are gradually returning to training.
Another piece of good news for Simeone was the return of Ademola Lookman. Alex Grimaldo, who suffered an overload while with the Spain squad, has already begun individual work on the pitch and is also hoping to feature in Vitoria. Atlético's squad situation is therefore gradually improving. The Madrid side will certainly look to exploit their superior quality and extend their winning run after the derby.
Probable lineups
- Alavés: Sivera, Pérez, Tenaglia, Otto, Valentín, Rebbach, Blanco, Duarte, Ibáñez, Boyé, Martínez.
- Atlético Madrid: Oblak, Le Normand, Romero, Pubill, Simeone, Ganczko, Llorente, Cardoso, Lee, Baena, David.
What to bet on?
Atlético are favorites thanks to their superior quality, excellent current form and psychological boost after beating Real Madrid. However, the lengthy break and the Mendizorroza factor make it impossible to expect an easy outing for Simeone's side. Alavés are sure to play cautiously and will try to keep the contest alive for as long as possible. We expect a hard-fought match with few goals, but Madrid should take all three points.
