Sevilla vs Real Madrid: prediction, H2H and probable lineups — 17.05.2026
One of the matches of La Liga’s 37th round will be played on Sunday at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán Stadium in Seville, where the local side Sevilla will host Real Madrid. Here’s my take on the outcome: the hosts need to finally secure their survival, while the visitors are seeing out the season without their previous competitive fire.
Sevilla
Sevilla come into this clash in their best form in a long time: Luis García’s side have won three in a row and have dramatically changed the mood around the club. The 3-2 win over Villarreal was especially crucial, as the Rojiblancos came back from 0-2 down to snatch a result that all but secured their place in La Liga. Now, Sevilla need just one point from their final two matches, but a home game against Real Madrid is too big an occasion to simply play for a draw.
At the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla have rediscovered the energy that was missing in the first half of the campaign. Since losing twice at home in January, the Andalusians have suffered just one defeat in eight matches, and have won their last three at home, including 1-0 over Real Sociedad and 2-1 against Atlético. Marcão is back training after surgery but won’t play again this season; however, Isaac Romero has returned, and the in-form duo of Akor Adams and Neal Maupay looks a logical starting choice.
Real Madrid
Real, after losing their mathematical chance at the title, seem to have switched into energy-saving mode. The 2-0 win over Oviedo was solid and clean on paper, but the performance left questions: Madrid took a long time to get into the game, made plenty of early mistakes, and only broke the deadlock just before halftime. Second place is already guaranteed, and dropping to third is out of the question, so Álvaro Arbeloa’s squad finds itself in a strange limbo — no competitive drama, but plenty of internal noise.
The squad situation is far from ideal for Madrid as well. Federico Valverde has returned to training and could get some minutes, Kylian Mbappé is expected to start after coming off the bench against Oviedo, but Rodrygo, Éder Militão, Ferland Mendy, and Arda Güler remain sidelined. The main issue for Real isn’t just the absences, but the quality of their attack: over the last seven rounds, they’ve created just 9.90 xG and scored nine goals, too often relying on flashes of brilliance from Vinícius, Bellingham, or long-range shots from Valverde.
Probable lineups
- Sevilla: Vlachodimos, Suazo, Salas, Castrín, Ángel Carmona, Joaquín, Gudelj, Agoumé, Vargas, Adams, Maupay.
- Real Madrid: Courtois, Alexander-Arnold, Rüdiger, Heisen, Carreras, Tchouaméni, Pitarch, Díaz, Bellingham, Vinícius Júnior, Mbappé.
Match facts & head-to-head
- Sevilla have won their last three La Liga matches and are all but assured of top-flight survival.
- Real have beaten Sevilla in five of their last six matches at the Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
- Four of the last six head-to-head meetings between Sevilla and Real have seen fewer than three goals scored.
Prediction
Right now, Sevilla look like a side that’s finally found a working balance between emotion, aggression, and pragmatism. At home, the Andalusians are capable of imposing a tough tempo on Real, especially with the hosts still highly motivated: one point seals survival, and a win over Madrid would be the perfect finale to a challenging season. Real remain the superior side on paper, but this isn’t a case where status automatically translates to advantage. Madrid are seeing out the league campaign with evident problems in positional attack, injury issues, and a sense of internal turbulence.
