Sao Tome and Principe vs Ethiopia: Prediction, H2H and probable lineups — March 25, 2026
Sao Tome and Principe
On Wednesday, March 25, Sao Tome and Principe, forced to host their opponent on neutral ground due to a lack of certified stadiums, will face the group favorite in the preliminary round of the Africa Cup of Nations — Ethiopia.
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Match preview
Sao Tome and Principe (189th in the FIFA rankings) remain one of the continent’s most modest national teams. Ricardo Monsanto’s squad is built around veteran and local football legend Luis Leal, who, at 38, is still the main attacking hope. The islanders traditionally rely on a tight defense and rare counterattacks, but the lack of home support in Morocco could prove to be a critical factor. In their recent 2026 World Cup qualifiers, the team looked hopeless in attack, failing to score in three consecutive matches.
Ethiopia (147th) under Mesay Teferi Kassa aims to settle the outcome of the tie in the first leg. The "Abyssinian Walias" are showing good momentum in March 2026: the return of Abubeker Nasir from South Africa's SuperSport United has brought new attacking options. Unlike their opponents, Ethiopia boasts a more balanced squad, with a core of players from top local clubs (Saint George and Ethiopian Coffee) who have regular experience in African continental competitions. The visitors’ main issue is poor finishing despite dominating possession.
Tactically, expect a classic siege: Ethiopia will seize control of midfield through Gatoch Panom and Amanuel Yohannes, attempting to break down Sao Tome’s low block via quick wing play from Cherenet Gugsa.
Probable lineups
Sao Tome: Mateus, Fernandes, Varela, Ramos, Silva, Neves, Titi, Iniesta, Cardoso, Lumungo, Leal
Ethiopia: Genetu, Bekele, Tamene, James, Yusuf, Panom, Yohannes, Tekeste, Desta, Gugsa, Nasir
Match facts and head-to-head
- The teams last met in 2015, each recording one victory
- Principe have won just one of their last ten matches, losing seven times
- Ethiopia have won three of their last six matches
Prediction
I expect a confident display from the visitors, who will look to settle the tie in the first leg. My prediction: Ethiopia Asian handicap (-1) at 1.68
