Roma vs Fiorentina: prediction, head-to-head stats and probable lineups — 04.05.2026
One of the matches of Serie A’s 35th round will take place on Monday at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, where Roma hosts Fiorentina. The home side is still chasing European competition and clinging to their Champions League dream, while the visitors have all but secured safety from relegation but approach the season’s end with a sense of unfinished business.
Match preview
Roma heads into this clash fresh off a crucial 2-0 away win over Bologna, a result that restored Gian Piero Gasperini’s men’s confidence at just the right time. The Giallorossi are tied for fifth and trail the Champions League spots by just three points, turning the season finale into a short sprint where there’s no room for complacency.
Roma’s home form remains a powerful weapon: they haven’t lost a Serie A match at the Olimpico since November, racking up seven wins and three draws in their last ten home games. The return of Paulo Dybala and Matías Soulé adds finesse to the attack around Donyell Malen, while the fit-again Kouadio Koné should bring more aggression and ball-winning ability to the midfield.
Fiorentina have looked solid in the spring under Paolo Vanoli, losing just once in the league and currently riding a seven-match unbeaten streak. But beneath the surface, their results have been a mixed bag: alongside a respectable 1-1 draw with Inter and a convincing 4-1 win over Cremonese came scrappier outings against Verona (1-0) and Lecce (1-1). Last round, the Viola failed to crack Sassuolo’s defense at home (0-0), despite firing 22 shots at goal.
The main issue for the Florentines is a lack of attacking depth. Moise Kean will miss his fourth consecutive game, Roberto Piccoli is also sidelined, and Albert Gudmundsson is shouldering a heavy workload without his usual efficiency. Jack Harrison remains their most dangerous threat up front, but against Roma’s defense, a single winger’s spark may not be enough.
Probable lineups
- Roma: Svilar, Hermoso, N’Dicka, Mancini, Wesley, Koné, Cristante, Celik, Soulé, Dybala, Malen.
- Fiorentina: De Gea, Dodo, Pongracic, Ranieri, Gosens, Fagioli, N'Dour, Mandragora, Harrison, Gudmundsson, Solomon.
Match facts & head-to-head
- Roma are unbeaten at home in Serie A since November, winning seven of their last ten matches at the Olimpico.
- Five of the last six meetings between these teams in Rome ended with a Roma victory.
- Both teams have scored in five of the last six head-to-head meetings between Roma and Fiorentina.
- No more than three goals have been scored in six of the last eight head-to-heads at Roma’s ground in Serie A (one push).
- Fiorentina have won the corner kick handicap (+3.5) in six of the last seven head-to-heads at Roma’s ground in Serie A.
- At least four yellow cards have been shown in the last 11 head-to-heads at Roma’s ground in Serie A.
Prediction
Roma come into this one with stronger motivation and a clearer match plan: they’re confident at home, maintain good structure off the ball, and have improved their attacking output in recent weeks. Dybala’s return is especially crucial in a clash where the opponent can stay compact, but is vulnerable between the lines. Fiorentina can put up a fight and snatch moments, but their attacking woes and set-piece struggles on the road make this trip to Rome a daunting challenge. The hosts have enough quality and pressure to exploit the visitors’ weaknesses and extend their home run.
