Real Sociedad vs Athletic: Prediction, H2H and probable lineups – March 4, 2026
On Wednesday, March 4, the Real Arena in San Sebastián will host the second leg of the Copa del Rey semifinals. In the main Basque derby, Real Sociedad welcomes Athletic Club from Bilbao. A spot in the final is at stake, and after the first leg, the hosts hold a narrow advantage.
Match preview
The first leg in Bilbao ended with a 1-0 victory for Real Sociedad, thanks to a goal by Turrientes. Now, Pellegrino Matarazzo's men are just one step away from the final and only need to avoid defeat at home. Sociedad have recently showcased highly organized football, aiming to control the tempo through possession. Despite missing several key players, including Kubo, the team maintains a delicate balance between defense and attack. The support from the stands in San Sebastián will be a huge factor, as not only a cup final berth but also regional pride is on the line in this fiercely contested rivalry.
Athletic, under Ernesto Valverde, travel with a single aim—to turn things around. The Bilbao side is renowned for its cup pedigree, and a one-goal deficit is far from a death sentence. The absence of Nico Williams, still recovering from a groin injury, remains a huge blow for the visitors. In his absence, the attacking burden will fall primarily on Guruzeta and Berenguer. Expect Athletic to bring an aggressive, physical game with high pressing, trying to force the home defenders into costly mistakes.
Tactically, we're in for a classic showdown: Sociedad will look to slow the game down and catch their rivals on the counter, making use of pace and skill out wide. Athletic, meanwhile, will bombard the box with crosses and look to capitalize on set pieces—a weapon that's always served them well.
Probable lineups
Real Sociedad: Remiro; Aramburu, Martin, Caleta-Car, Gomez; Gorrotxategi, Herrera; Guedes, Soler, Oyarzabal; Oskarsson
Athletic Club: Simon; Areso, Vivian, Laporte, Berchiche; Ruiz de Galarreta, Jauregizar; I Williams, Sancet, Gomez; Guruzeta
Match facts and head-to-head
- The last five meetings have produced two wins for Sociedad, two draws, and one Athletic victory
- Sociedad have lost just two of their last 15 games, winning nine of them
- Athletic have won four of their last six matches, conceding in each
Prediction
Given the attacking firepower both sides have shown in this matchup, there's every reason to expect goals. My prediction: both teams to score – YES at 1.87
