Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund prediction, H2H and probable lineups — July 5, 2025
On July 5, 2025, the FIFA Club World Cup quarterfinals will see Real Madrid take on Borussia Dortmund. The match kicks off at 22:00 Central European Time. Let’s break down the best bet for the winner of this high-stakes showdown.
Real Madrid
Real Madrid arrive at yet another Club World Cup as five-time champions. The “Merengues” last lifted the trophy in 2022, defeating Saudi side Al Hilal in the final. Interestingly, Madrid faced Al Hilal again in the opening round of this year's tournament—this time, the match ended 1-1.
In their second outing, Real dispatched Pachuca with a confident 3-1 win, and then rounded off the group stage by defeating Red Bull Salzburg 3-0. Topping their group, the Spaniards advanced to the round of 16, where Juventus awaited. In a tense clash, Xabi Alonso’s men eked out a narrow 1-0 victory.
All eyes are on the new Xabi Alonso project, as the head coach isn’t afraid to shake up his squad. New signings are already getting their chances: Heisen and Trent Alexander-Arnold have made an immediate impact. Alonso is also putting his faith in youth—promising talents like Gonzalo and Arda Güler are seeing substantial game time.
It’s worth noting that the last time Borussia and Real met was this year in the Champions League, with Madrid running out 5-2 winners. The previous season, the sides clashed in the Champions League final—once again, Real emerged victorious, 2-0.
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund, meanwhile, started the tournament on a cautious note. Their first match finished in a goalless draw against one of the group’s toughest opponents—Brazilian side Fluminense. Despite attacking intent from both teams, neither side could create real scoring opportunities according to expected goals (xG), and the draw was a fair result.
In the second round, Dortmund produced an all-out attacking spectacle against South Africa’s Mamelodi Sundowns—winning 4-3. Their forwards were clinical, though defensive lapses made for a nervy affair. The final group match against Korea’s Ulsan was a more measured 1-0 victory, enough to see Dortmund top their group and advance to the round of 16.
In the knockout stage, Niko Kovac’s men faced Mexican side Monterrey. Serhou Guirassy’s first-half brace put Dortmund in control early. Despite a late goal from the opposition, Dortmund confidently saw out a 2-1 win.
Now, Dortmund face a formidable and historically tricky opponent—Real Madrid. The German side hasn’t beaten the “Merengues” since 2014, when they won 2-0 in the Champions League quarterfinal second leg but failed to advance on aggregate. Since then, the teams have met six times: two draws and four straight wins for Madrid, including last season’s Champions League final.
Probable lineups
- Real Madrid: Courtois, Garcia, Heisen, Rüdiger, Alexander-Arnold, Valverde, Tchouaméni, Vinicius, Bellingham, Güler, Gonzalo.
- Borussia Dortmund: Kobel, Süle, Anton, Bensebaini, Ryerson, Sabitzer, Groß, Svensson, Nmecha, Adeyemi, Guirassy.
Key facts and head-to-head stats
- Real Madrid have won 6 of their last 7 matches.
- Real Madrid have scored first in 8 of their last 9 games.
- Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 11 matches.
- Real Madrid have won the last 4 head-to-head meetings with Dortmund.
- 5 of the last 6 encounters between these teams have seen over 2.5 goals.
Prediction for Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund
Real Madrid enter this clash as clear favorites. Under Xabi Alonso, they’ve showcased a fresh style, potent attacking football, and solid defense. The new manager has quickly found the right balance, and Madrid already look like a well-oiled machine. The head-to-head record also favors Real—Dortmund haven’t beaten them since 2014, with Madrid consistently coming out on top in recent meetings. Expect Real to confirm their superiority, claim the win, and take a step toward yet another trophy—their first under Alonso and a sixth Club World Cup title for the club. My bet: Real Madrid to win at odds of 1.68.
