Real Madrid vs Benfica prediction, H2H and probable lineups — February 25, 2026
On February 25, 2026, the Santiago Bernabeu will host the second leg of the Champions League playoff between Real Madrid and Benfica.
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Key facts and head-to-head history:
- Real Madrid have won 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Benfica have lost just 1 of their last 5 games.
- The first leg ended 1-0 in favor of Real.
- This will be the fourth head-to-head encounter between the sides.
-Head-to-head record: Real – 2 wins, draws – 0, Benfica – 1 win. - In 2 out of 3 meetings, both teams have found the net.
- The first leg featured a controversial incident involving alleged racist behavior by Gianluca Prestianni towards Vinicius Junior.
Match preview:
The first clash in Lisbon ended with a narrow 1-0 victory for Madrid, giving Los Blancos the edge but leaving plenty of intrigue for the return leg.
Real are traditionally a powerhouse at home in European competitions, especially in the knockout stages. With a slender advantage, Madrid can afford to play pragmatically, control the tempo, and wait for the right moments to strike. However, a single goal conceded could turn the tie on its head, so the hosts must stay focused from the opening whistle.
Benfica showed discipline and compactness in the first leg, but in Madrid, the Portuguese side will need to be much more aggressive. Adding an extra layer of intrigue is Benfica’s head coach, Jose Mourinho, who knows Real inside out, having previously managed the Spanish giants. His experience and understanding of Los Blancos’ structure could be pivotal in Benfica’s tactical setup. However, Mourinho won’t be on the bench for Benfica—he received a red card in the first leg and will serve a suspension. This absence could affect the team’s emotional state and in-game management.
The build-up to this clash is also dominated by the incident involving Vinicius Junior and Gianluca Prestianni. The racism scandal sparked widespread public reaction and reignited crucial discussions about eradicating discrimination from football. In the second leg, all eyes will be on the behavior of players and fans alike.
Tactically, Real will look to play as efficiently as possible, exploiting the spaces that will inevitably open up when Benfica push forward in search of an equalizer. Benfica, meanwhile, will have to take risks, ramp up the intensity, and look for chances down the flanks and from set pieces. With the aggregate score at 1-0, the tension will last until the final whistle, and a single moment could decide the outcome of this tie.
Probable lineups:
- Real Madrid: Courtois, Carreras, Huijsen, Rudiger, Alexander-Arnold, Camavinga, Tchouameni, Guller, Valverde, Mbappe, Vinicius Jr.
- Benfica: Trubin, Dedic, Araujo, Otamendi, Dahl, Barreiro, Aursnes, Lukebakio, Silva, Schjeldrup, Pavlidids.
Match prediction:
The Portuguese side needs to overturn a narrow 0-1 deficit, meaning the visitors will have to play boldly, push forward, and take risks. This approach will inevitably create opportunities for both Benfica and Real, who are always dangerous on the counter and excel at quick transitions from defense to attack.
Madrid rarely leave the Bernabeu without scoring, especially on European nights, but the hosts’ defense has shown vulnerability under pressure. If Benfica go all out, they’re capable of creating enough chances to find the net at least once. Given the context, the expected open football, and the high tempo, both teams scoring looks the most likely scenario in this clash.
My prediction: both teams to score — Yes.
