Real Madrid vs Athletic Bilbao: prediction, H2H and probable lineups — 23.05.2026
One of the matches of La Liga's 38th round will take place on Saturday at the Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid, where Real will host Athletic Bilbao. For the hosts, this is less about league standings and more about the emotional closure of the season; for the Basques, it’s the last chance to cling to a faint hope of European qualification.
Real Madrid
Real approach the final round with nothing left to play for in the standings: regardless of the result, they will finish second. But there’s a strong symbolic layer to this match — it’s Álvaro Arbeloa’s last game in charge and Dani Carvajal’s farewell to the club. The atmosphere at the Bernabéu promises to be both tense and ceremonial: the team will want to close the season out with a win, but the mood around the dressing room is far from perfect. The farewell dinner has already taken place — notably, Arbeloa was not invited, underlining the tension within this outgoing project.
On the pitch, Real remain a reliable force at home, even if the season hasn’t been flawless. In their last 11 matches at the Bernabéu, Madrid have collected nine wins, and in recent rounds calmly secured victories over Oviedo (2-0) and Sevilla (1-0). There are some selection issues: Vinicius, Tchouaméni and Heisén are doubtful, while Güler, Rodrygo, Mendy and Militão are ruled out through injury. However, the return of Valverde to the starting lineup could inject the midfield with the energy Real lacked in stretches during the spring.
Athletic
Athletic finish the season looking like a team running on empty, not revived even by a lighter schedule after their exits from the Champions League and Copa del Rey. Ernesto Valverde will take charge of the Basques for the last time, but a glorious finish has eluded them. Over the last 11 league matches, Athletic have picked up just ten points from a possible 33, a run that effectively dashed their hopes of confidently reclaiming a European place. Theoretically, hope remains, but to qualify they must not only win in Madrid but also hope for multiple rivals to slip up.
The Basques’ main problem is their defense, which in 2026 has ceased to be the team’s signature foundation. Across 26 matches in all competitions, Athletic have kept just one clean sheet, and an average of 1.8 goals conceded per game is a worrying statistic for Valverde’s side. Unai Simón is also enduring a rough patch: over the last ten games, the Basques have allowed chances worth 13.44 xG but conceded 17 goals. The suspension of Yuri Berchiche is another blow to the left flank, especially since he has been not only a key defender but also the team’s top assist provider.
Probable lineups
- Real Madrid: Courtois, García, Alaba, Rüdiger, Carvajal, Camavinga, Valverde, Díaz, Bellingham, Mastantuono, Mbappé.
- Athletic Bilbao: Simón, Gorosabel, Álvarez, Laporte, Boiró, Rego, Ruiz, Williams, Navarro, Berenguer, Guruzeta.
Match facts and head-to-head
- In four of the last six matches between Real and Athletic, only one team has found the net.
- No more than three goals have been scored in any of the last 13 head-to-head encounters between these sides.
- Real have won three of their last four home matches against Athletic with a clean sheet.
- Real Madrid have taken more corners than their opponents in 10 of the last 13 head-to-heads at home in La Liga.
- No more than three goals have been scored in eight of the last nine meetings between these sides at the Bernabéu in La Liga (with two pushes).
Prediction
Real have no pressing need to go all out, but they do have an emotional incentive to deliver a strong home performance. Carvajal’s farewell, Arbeloa’s final match in charge, and the desire to close out the campaign in front of their fans should provide Madrid with the necessary focus. Even with selection problems, the hosts look the more individually gifted and tactically coherent side. Athletic still have mathematical interest, but their spring form is unconvincing: they concede too many, defend inconsistently, and arrive at the Bernabéu without Berchiche, which could be a major issue against Real’s wing play. The Basques are capable of putting up a fight and maybe scoring, but keeping Real at bay for the full 90 minutes looks a tall order.
