Real Madrid vs Alaves: prediction, H2H and probable lineups — 21.04.2026
One of the matches of La Liga's thirty-third round will take place on Tuesday at the Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid, where the local giants Real Madrid host Alaves. I suggest a bet on the outcome of this clash with strong chances for success, considering the hosts’ tournament motivation and their confident head-to-head record against the Basque side.
Match preview
Real Madrid come into this game after a painful Champions League exit, but such setbacks often spark maximum focus from the squad in domestic competition. In the return leg against Bayern, the Madridistas played with flair, scoring three goals but ultimately falling 3-4. Now, all their energy will be channeled into La Liga, where their gap to Barcelona still leaves at least a theoretical chance to put pressure on the leaders.
For Real, this match is not just about points - it's about status, rhythm, and maintaining their predatory pace right to the finish line. Carlo Ancelotti has almost a full-strength squad at his disposal, and Mbappe, leading the scoring race, once again takes center stage. Against an opponent they've beaten in their last eight meetings, the hosts are expected to seize control from the outset.
Alaves, under Quique Sanchez Flores, have become a team that fights for every moment and refuses to crumble under pressure. In five games with their new coach, the Basques have lost just once, snatched a dramatic 3-3 draw from Real Sociedad, and battled to a 1-1 against Villarreal. An extra break between matches has also given the team a crucial physical boost.
Still, this Alaves side thrives on emotional surges and clinical attacking efficiency. They've scored 12 goals in five matches with an xG of just 6.43 - a classic case where the numbers hint at a potential regression, especially away against a team that rarely forgives wastefulness in front of goal.
Probable lineups
- Real Madrid: Lunin, Carreras, Rudiger, Militao, Alexander-Arnold, Tchouameni, Guler, Valverde, Bellingham, Junior, Mbappe.
- Alaves: Sivera, Castro, Tenaglia, Parada, Perez, Lekhedim, Ibanez, Blanco, Aldalur, Martinez, Boye.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Real have won their last eight matches against Alaves, not dropping points since November 2020.
- Both teams have scored in Real’s last six matches and in five of Alaves’ last six outings.
- Real played Bayern in the Champions League before this clash, while Alaves recently took points from Real Sociedad and Villarreal.
Prediction
There’s plenty to suggest the hosts will prevail, but this won’t be a walk in the park. Real will be fired up after European disappointment, while Alaves have become too stubborn to simply roll over. Still, the class, depth, and league urgency are all clearly with Madrid. The optimal bet here is a Real Madrid win combined with “Total Over 2.5”.
