Real Madrid - Borussia Dortmund prediction, H2H and probable line-ups - July 5, 2025
One of the most anticipated quarterfinals of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup is set to take place on July 5 at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey, where Real Madrid will clash with Borussia Dortmund. The winner of this showdown will go on to face either Bayern Munich or PSG. Here's a betting tip for this encounter with solid chances for success.
Match preview
Real Madrid approach this fixture with their trademark confidence, riding a wave of four straight wins in the tournament. Under Xabi Alonso’s guidance, Los Blancos are not only showcasing their class but also an updated style: the 3-5-2 formation has unlocked the squad’s depth, including young Gonzalo Garcia, who unexpectedly became the hero in the win over Juventus.
Kylian Mbappé’s return injects even more firepower into the attack, while Jude Bellingham continues to shine in midfield — especially poignant as he faces his former club. Despite some personnel losses (Camavinga, Alaba, Mendy, Endrick), Madrid have enough quality to dictate play in any phase of the match. Their tournament stats are impressive: 16 wins in 20 matches and not a single defeat.
Borussia Dortmund are experiencing a true renaissance under Niko Kovač. The German side not only navigated a tough group featuring Fluminense and Mamelodi Sundowns, but also confidently dispatched Monterrey in the round of 16. Serhou Guirassy continues his prolific scoring run, while Karim Adeyemi has found form and is actively involved in creating chances.
Although Dortmund have lost their last four head-to-head encounters with Real, the Ruhr club are in top form — nine wins in their last ten matches and a Champions League berth secured after a rocky start to the season. However, Kovač’s squad is weakened: Jobe Bellingham, Emre Can, Özcan, and Schlotterbeck are all unavailable, which could be a decisive blow against one of the world’s best teams.
Probable line-ups
- Real Madrid: Courtois, Rüdiger, Tchouaméni, Huijsen, Alexander-Arnold, Bellingham, Valverde, Güler, Garcia, Mbappé, Vinícius
- Borussia Dortmund: Kobel, Süle, Anton, Bensebaini, Ryerson, Nmecha, Groß, Svensson, Sabitzer, Adeyemi, Guirassy
Match facts and head-to-head
- Real are unbeaten in 20 FIFA Club World Cup matches.
- The last four meetings between these teams ended in Madrid's favor, including the 2024 Champions League final.
- Borussia Dortmund have won 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
Prediction
Despite Dortmund’s progress, the difference in squad depth, experience, and psychological edge clearly favors Real. Alonso’s team are in top gear and look confident in any scenario. Our prediction: "Real Madrid to win" at odds of 1.65.
