RB Leipzig vs St. Pauli Prediction, Match preview and Lineups — 9 May 2026
On May 9, 2026, in Matchday 33 of the Bundesliga, RB Leipzig will host St. Pauli. Let’s take a closer look at the potential outcome of this clash.
Match preview
RB Leipzig come into this match after a heavy 1–4 away defeat against Bayer Leverkusen, which ended their impressive run of five consecutive victories. Despite that setback, their overall form remains strong, with seven wins in their last nine matches across all competitions.
In the Bundesliga table, Leipzig sit in third place. They have likely lost the chance to catch Borussia Dortmund in second, but still hold a four-point cushion over fourth place. A win here would mathematically secure third position.
At home, Leipzig have been very strong this season with 11 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats. Their matches have also been highly entertaining — 5 of their last 6 games have gone over 2.5 goals, and they have scored first in five of those matches. Leipzig have also been particularly dominant against teams outside the top part of the table, winning 11 of their 13 home matches against such opponents this season, showing a clear consistency edge in this type of fixture.
St. Pauli, on the other hand, are in very poor form and fighting for survival. The team are currently on an eight-match winless run, losing five and drawing three. In their most recent game, they suffered a 1–2 home defeat against Mainz.
They sit 17th in the table, six points away from safety, and their main goal is to reach the relegation playoff spot. Defensively, they have been struggling heavily, conceding in seven consecutive matches. Their away performances have been especially concerning, with just one win in their last nine away games, and they have also failed to score in the second half in any of their last seven away matches.
Head-to-head history is relatively balanced overall, with both teams having three wins each and two draws in the last eight meetings. However, St. Pauli have not beaten Leipzig in their last four encounters. Leipzig have also remained unbeaten in all top-flight meetings against St. Pauli, which further underlines their historical advantage in this matchup.
Probable Lineups
- RB Leipzig: Vandervoordt, Raum, Lukeba, Orban, Baku, Schlager, Baumgartner, Seiwald, Nusa, Romulo, Diomande
- St. Pauli: Vasilj, Mets, Wahl, Tomoya Ando, Ritzka, Smith, Irvine, Pyrka, Sinani, Fujita, Hountondji
Key Facts and Head-to-Head
- RB Leipzig have won 5 of their last 6 matches.
- 9 of ’s last 11 matches have seen over 2.5 goals.
- In 4 of RB Leipzig’s last 5 matches, both teams scored.
- St. Pauli are winless in their last 8 matches.
- RB Leipzig have won 3 of the last 4 home head-to-head meetings.
Prediction
Both teams come into this match after defeats in the previous round, but Leipzig remain in far stronger overall form and are close to securing third place in the Bundesliga. St. Pauli are fighting for survival and continue to struggle defensively. Despite their struggles, St. Pauli often compete well in head-to-head meetings, but Leipzig usually control this fixture, especially at home. Leipzig’s home matches have been consistently high-scoring, with most recent games featuring multiple goals, while St. Pauli’s defensive issues away from home have led to repeated concession runs throughout the season. Given the attacking strength of the hosts and the defensive problems of the visitors, this match is likely to be open. With Leipzig aiming to bounce back and secure their position, and St. Pauli needing points for survival, both sides are expected to play aggressively. This combination of Leipzig’s attacking consistency at home and St. Pauli’s poor defensive record on the road strongly supports a high-scoring scenario. Recommended bet: Over 2.5 goals — 1.44
