RB Leipzig vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction, head-to-head and probable lineups – 21 February 2026
The marquee clash of Bundesliga matchday 23 takes place on Saturday at the Red Bull Arena, as RB Leipzig host Borussia Dortmund. Let’s break down the key factors for this high-stakes encounter, weighing Dortmund’s superb form against Leipzig’s formidable home record in this rivalry.
- See also: Bayern vs Eintracht Frankfurt: prediction, head-to-head and probable lineups – 21 February 2026
Match preview
Leipzig are going through a tough stretch: over the past month, Ole Werner’s team have managed just a single win — a narrow 2-1 over Köln, and even that lacked a sense of control. They have only one victory in their last five outings across all competitions, with the battle for a top-four spot coming down to the smallest margins. The Bulls are just two points off fourth, but consistency remains elusive.
At home, however, Leipzig have been nearly flawless against Dortmund — five straight wins on their own turf, with Dortmund failing to score in three of those. The likely return of Lukeba and a relatively strong squad offer reasons for optimism, though the absence of Uedraogo in midfield still leaves a noticeable gap in their balance.
Borussia Dortmund have looked almost unstoppable in the league. After opening the year with a 3-3 draw against Eintracht, the Black-and-Yellows have rattled off six consecutive Bundesliga victories, closing the gap to the leaders to just six points. During the week, Dortmund dispatched Atalanta 2-0 in the Champions League, boosting their confidence ahead of this crucial showdown.
Niko Kovac’s biggest weapon? Set pieces. Dortmund have scored from corners or free kicks in each of their last six matches, with Ryerson’s deliveries posing a constant threat to opponents. That said, their defense isn’t watertight — Süle, Can, and Schlotterbeck have yet to find top form, which could spell trouble against Leipzig’s pacey wingers.
Probable lineups
- RB Leipzig: Vandevoordt, Raum, Lukeba, Orban, Baku, Baumgartner, Seiwald, Gruda, Nusa, Cardoso, Djamande
- Borussia Dortmund: Kobel, Regiani, Anton, Bensebaini, Sabitzer, Nmecha, Couto, Svensson, Adeyemi, Chukwuemeka, Guirassy
Match facts and head-to-head
- Leipzig have won their last five home games against Borussia Dortmund.
- Borussia Dortmund are on a six-match Bundesliga winning streak.
- Seven of the last ten head-to-head meetings have featured no more than three goals.
Prediction
Leipzig’s home record in this fixture is impressive, but current form and mental fortitude are on Dortmund’s side. The visitors are surging in the title race and have turned set pieces into a decisive weapon — often a game-changer in evenly matched contests. Expect a fiercely competitive match with plenty of goal-scoring chances.
