Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal: prediction, H2H and probable lineups — 17.05.2026
One of the clashes of La Liga's Matchday 37 will take place this Sunday at the Campo de Vallecas in Madrid, where local side Rayo Vallecano host Villarreal. Here’s my take on the outcome: the hosts have already secured their spot in La Liga and have the Conference League final on their minds, while the visitors are defending third place as Marcelino prepares for his farewell.
Match preview
Midweek, Rayo Vallecano officially put their relegation worries to bed with a 1-1 draw against Valencia. Randy Nteka missed a penalty, Florian Lejeune put Madrid in front, but Diego Lopez equalized before halftime; in the end, that draw was enough for Inigo Perez’s side to guarantee a sixth consecutive season in the top flight.
This could be Perez’s last home match in charge of Rayo, as the coach is strongly linked with none other than Villarreal. But it’s too soon to focus solely on the future: Rayo still have a Conference League final against Crystal Palace ahead, and in La Liga they’re technically just four points off the top seven. Vallecas remains a fortress — Rayo are unbeaten in eight straight home league matches.
Villarreal, meanwhile, have clinched a Champions League berth for the second season in a row and sit third, three points ahead of Atletico. Yet the mood in the Yellow Submarine’s camp isn’t perfect: Marcelino will leave the club at the end of the season, even though he’s the architect of their impressive finish.
Last round, Villarreal suffered a painful 2-3 defeat to Sevilla, despite leading 2-0 by the 20th minute courtesy of goals from Gerard Moreno and Georges Mikautadze. That marked their first home loss since January, and now Marcelino needs to restore discipline quickly ahead of the final showdown with Atletico. Notably, Villarreal thrashed Rayo 4-0 in the reverse fixture, giving the visitors a psychological edge.
Probable lineups
- Rayo Vallecano: Batalla, Ratiu, Lejeune, Ciss, Pacha, Lopez, Valentin, Perez, Nteka, De Frutos, Camello.
- Villarreal: Tenas, Mourino, Navarro, Marin, Cardona, Buchanan, Comesaña, Gueye, Alfon, Ayoze, Oluwaseyi.
Key facts and head-to-head stats
- Rayo Vallecano are unbeaten in their last eight home La Liga matches: four wins and four draws.
- Villarreal won the reverse fixture against Rayo with a commanding 4-0 scoreline.
- Marcelino could be taking charge of one of his last matches for Villarreal, despite the team qualifying for the Champions League.
- Rayo Vallecano have taken more corners than their opponents in six of their last seven home La Liga fixtures.
- Both teams have scored in six of the last eight head-to-heads at Rayo’s ground in La Liga.
Prediction
Rayo have already achieved their main goal for the season, but Inigo Perez’s side always play with extra energy at home and will not want to head into their Conference League final on the back of a defeat. Vallecas is a tough place even for more illustrious opponents, and squad freshness after some rotation could be a factor.
Villarreal have superior quality and remain motivated to hold on to third, but the loss to Sevilla showed that they are vulnerable when they lose control after a strong start. I expect an open match with chances at both ends: the hosts will extend their home streak, while the visitors’ attacking quality should see them find the net. My pick — both teams to score.
