Qarabag vs Ajax prediction, H2H and probable line-ups - December 10, 2025
One of the fixtures of matchday 6 in the 2025/26 Champions League group stage will take place on Wednesday at the Tofiq Bahramov Republican Stadium in Baku, where local side Qarabag will host Dutch giants Ajax. I’m offering a bet on the outcome of this contest with solid chances for success.
Match preview
The Azerbaijani club started the group stage confidently but then hit a tough stretch in the calendar, coming up against the tournament favourites. After two victories, the team has failed to win in three consecutive matches, and the defeat to Napoli ended an impressive 10-game scoring streak. However, Qarabag remain a formidable force at home — 14 matches out of their last 17 on their own turf without defeat speaks for itself.
The team are still in the running — 7 points keep their hopes alive for advancing to the next round, especially given that their opponent is a struggling Ajax side. Qarabag have yet to defeat a Dutch club, but this current Ajax squad is far from elite. It’s also important to note that at home, Qarabag often deliver offensively — scoring 1–2 goals in most matches.
The Dutch powerhouse is enduring one of the worst European campaigns in its history. Five matches, five defeats, the worst goal difference, and zero points. Even a managerial change failed to shake things up: the defence continues to collapse, and the attack has been silent in four out of five games. Such form is inevitably reflected in their position — bottom of the group table.
Ajax have shown the occasional flash away from home, but in their two Champions League away games this season, they have conceded 9 goals. The team is struggling under pressure and has been consistently losing lately. All that’s left is to push forward with hope, but with this defence, it’s more likely to end in yet another fiasco than a miracle escape.
Probable line-ups
- Qarabag: Mateusz Kochalski, Badavi Huseynov, Kevin Medina, Mateus Silva, Elvin Jafarguliyev, Marko Jankovic, Abdellah Zoubir, Leandro Andrade, Pedro Bicalho, Emmanuel Addai, Camilo Duran
- Ajax: Remko Pasveer, Lucas Rosa, Gerald Alders, Jorrel Hato, Owen Wijndal, Yury Reger, Kenneth Taylor, Oscar Gloukh, Oliver Edvardsen, Mika Godts, Kasper Dolberg
Match facts and head-to-head
- Qarabag are unbeaten in 14 of their last 17 Champions League home games.
- Ajax are the only club without a single point in the 2025/26 Champions League group stage.
- Both teams have scored in 6 of Qarabag’s last 8 matches in the competition.
Prediction
Qarabag’s home fortress could once again play a decisive role, especially against an opponent in a prolonged crisis. Ajax lack both form and stability, and the upcoming clash is unlikely to change that. The Azerbaijanis, meanwhile, play bravely on home soil, attack with variety, and consistently find a way to goal. Prediction: "Qarabag double chance & over 1.5 goals" at odds of 1.65.
