Prediction for Almería vs. Burgos: a battle between neighbors at the top of the table
On October 3, Almería will host Burgos in the eighth round of Spain’s Segunda. The game promises to be a fascinating one, as the teams are virtually next-door neighbors in the standings ahead of their head-to-head clash. Almería sit third with 15 points, while Burgos are fourth on 14. Both sides have already made their ambitions for the season clear, so this could be a genuine battle for a place at the top of the table.
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Almería are enjoying an excellent spell right now. After losing their opening two matches of the season, the team completely reset and produced a run of four straight victories. First, the Andalusians beat Cádiz 3-2, then defeated Córdoba 2-0, saw off Celta B 2-0 and, in the last round, secured a narrow 1-0 away win over Mallorca. Miguel de la Fuente scored the only goal in the 35th minute.
The progress is evident not only in the results. In their last four matches, Almería have scored eight goals and conceded just two. Overall, after seven rounds, the team have 11 goals scored and only four conceded. That is one of the reasons why the hosts currently occupy a place in the top three.
It will be particularly interesting to see Almería at home. They have already played three matches on their own turf and won every one of them. There were victories over Eldense — 3-0, Cádiz — 3-2 and Celta B — 2-0. That makes eight goals scored and just two conceded. Burgos will have to withstand serious pressure from the stands while also preventing the hosts from gaining confidence early on.
But the visitors are also coming into the match in excellent form. Burgos have lost only one of their seven league matches. After their defeat to Sporting in the third round, Sergio Francisco’s team have not lost again: a 2-2 draw with Real Sociedad B, a 0-0 draw with Real Oviedo, a 3-1 win over Ceuta, followed by a 2-1 away victory at Las Palmas and a 1-0 home win over Eldense.
The last match was especially telling. Burgos did not take unnecessary risks and calmly saw out the game against Eldense. Before that, the team managed to win at Las Palmas, which once again underlined their ability to pick up points in difficult conditions.
In terms of attacking output, the teams are almost identical. Both have scored 11 goals after seven rounds. The difference lies in defense: Almería have conceded four times, compared with seven for Burgos. The hosts therefore look slightly more reliable at the back for now, although the visitors are compensating for that with their strong current run.
As for the head-to-head record, there is no clear dominance from either side here either. In the most recent meeting, which took place in May, the teams played out a 0-0 draw. Before that, Burgos won 2-1 in Almería, while in the previous encounter Almería had taken revenge with a 2-0 home victory. So the recent clashes have been tight affairs, with relatively few goals.
A great deal in this game could depend on the opening goal. Almería are in full stride right now and will surely look to seize the initiative straight away at home. Burgos, meanwhile, would benefit from taking a more pragmatic approach and exploiting the spaces that may open up after the hosts’ attacks.
Overall, we are in for one of the most intriguing fixtures of the eighth round. Almería have won their last four matches and have yet to drop a single point at home, while Burgos are unbeaten in four rounds. At the same time, the teams are separated by just one point. A victory in this clash could therefore significantly reshape the upper part of the table.
My prediction: Almería to win.
