Osasuna vs Real Madrid: prediction, head-to-head and probable lineups – 21 February 2026
In one of the matches of La Liga’s 25th round on Saturday, Osasuna will host Real Madrid at the El Sadar Stadium in Pamplona. Let’s break down a bet on the match outcome with solid winning potential.
Match preview
Osasuna kicked off the second half of the season confidently, going unbeaten in five rounds – three wins and two draws have kept the Pamplona side solidly mid-table and within reach of the European spots. Yet, beneath this clean run lie some underlying issues: in the last round against Elche (0-0), Osasuna created fewer quality chances (0.81 xG to 2.33) and were fortunate not to lose. Alessio Lisci openly admitted the opponents were closer to victory.
At El Sadar, Osasuna traditionally rely on physical football and set pieces – 13 goals from set plays, the best tally in the league. Poor pitch conditions after recent rains could play into the hosts’ hands, as they’re comfortable defending deep and battling for aerial dominance. In the reverse fixture, Real edged just a 1-0 win, struggling against Osasuna’s compact defending and limited space.
Meanwhile, Real Madrid are riding a wave of momentum: eight straight league wins have propelled them to the top of the table, two points clear of Barcelona. Last round, Los Blancos consolidated their lead, and on February 17 defeated Benfica 1-0 in the Champions League. Despite a packed schedule and only three days to recover, the team has displayed maturity and composure.
The return of Rüdiger and Alexander-Arnold has stabilized the back line and improved their build-up under pressure. In their past seven La Liga outings, Real have conceded just three goals, while Vinícius Júnior has scored in three consecutive games. Even without Bellingham, Madrid maintain balance, with Güler enjoying more freedom between the lines.
Probable lineups
- Osasuna: Herrera, Galán, Errando, Catena, Rosier, Torro, Moncayola, Oroz, Muñoz, García, Budimir
- Real Madrid: Courtois, Alexander-Arnold, Rüdiger, Heysen, Carreras, Tchouaméni, Valverde, Camavinga, Güler, Mbappé, Vinícius
Match facts and head-to-head
- Real have won five of their last six matches against Osasuna.
- Four of the last six meetings between these teams have seen at least three goals scored.
- Osasuna are unbeaten in the second half of the season, collecting 11 points from five matches.
Prediction
Osasuna have what it takes to trouble the favorites with their tight defense and set-piece prowess, especially on a heavy pitch. But Real’s current form and defensive solidity make them strong favorites to take all three points.
