Osasuna vs Atletico Madrid: prediction, head-to-head stats and probable lineups — 12.05.2026
One of the clashes of La Liga’s Matchday 36 unfolds this Tuesday at El Sadar in Pamplona, where Osasuna hosts Atletico Madrid. For the home side, this is almost a last-ditch opportunity to stay in the hunt for a Conference League spot, while the "Colchoneros" arrive at the season’s end free from their earlier table pressure following their Champions League exit.
Match preview
Osasuna have made their own path to Europe much harder: just one win in their last six matches is simply not enough for a team that, not so long ago, looked one of the steadiest sides in the league’s lower half. The 2-3 loss to Levante stung especially, as their opponents played with a survival instinct that the Pamplona outfit is sorely lacking right now.
Still, Osasuna remain a formidable force at home: over their last 11 matches at El Sadar, they have only fallen to Barcelona, and the likes of Real Madrid, Betis, Villarreal and Athletic have all felt just how intense Pamplona’s fortress can be. The main question is whether Liska can reignite the side’s aggression without the suspended Sergio Herrera, and if the possible rotation with Galan and Torro returning will disrupt their balance.
Atletico, on the other hand, look like a team that’s already mentally checked out of the season. After their Champions League semifinal exit at the hands of Arsenal, there’s little left to fight for in La Liga: Champions League qualification for next season is long secured, and their 0-1 defeat to Celta only underlined the sense of emptiness.
Yes, Simeone’s team had 20 shots in that game, but conceded from Celta’s only shot on target and couldn’t switch on their trademark late pressure. Squad issues aren’t helping either: Jimenez is injured, Baena is suspended, and the fitness of Alvarez and Giuliano Simeone is questionable, so there’s every chance we’ll see a rotated squad in Pamplona.
Probable lineups
- Osasuna: Fernandez, Galan, Boyomo, Catena, Rosier, Moncayola, Torro, Moro, Oroz, Garcia, Budimir.
- Atletico Madrid: Musso, Molina, Le Normand, Lenglet, Diaz, Lookman, Vargas, Mendoza, Almada, Griezmann, Sorloth.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Atletico have won seven of their last ten meetings with Osasuna.
- Osasuna have lost just one of their last 11 home matches, with Barcelona the only side to win at El Sadar in that time.
- Four of Osasuna’s last six and five of Atletico’s last seven league games have seen over 2.5 goals.
Osasuna have suffered just one defeat in their last 11 La Liga home fixtures.
Both teams have scored in eight of the last nine matches at El Sadar.
- The "Colchoneros" average 6.4 corners per game, bettered only by Real Madrid (6.5) and Barcelona (7.0).
- At least one team has failed to score in nine of the last ten La Liga meetings between these sides in Pamplona.
- Osasuna have delivered more corners than their opponents in six of their last seven La Liga home games against Atletico.
Prediction
Atletico have the superior quality and depth, but right now that edge doesn’t look decisive. Simeone’s side are emotionally drained after their Champions League run, missing key players and, as seen against Celta, can dominate the stats but not necessarily the scoreline. Osasuna aren’t in their best spell either, but their motivation and the El Sadar atmosphere could be enough to tip the balance. Budimir is enjoying a strong season, the home flanks should put real pressure on the visitors’ defense, and a rotated or half-strength Atletico might struggle to impose themselves in this kind of cauldron.
