Old scores and a new favorite: prediction for England vs Croatia - 17.06.2026
On Wednesday, one of the opening matches of the 2026 World Cup group stage will take place at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, where England will face Croatia. The Three Lions enter the tournament as one of the favorites, but right from the start, they’re up against an opponent with a wealth of big-match experience and a history of delivering painful blows to English ambitions.
England: Tuchel has a solid foundation and more attacking competition
England cruised through World Cup qualifying: eight wins from eight matches with a combined score of 22:0. Sure, the level of opposition wasn’t the highest, but after Thomas Tuchel took charge, the team worked through some March experiments and by summer looked much more cohesive - edging New Zealand by a single goal and then confidently dispatching Costa Rica 3:0.
England’s biggest strength heading into the tournament is depth at key positions. Jude Bellingham, after a less-than-stellar club season, stepped up in the June friendlies and is once again vying for the role behind the striker, while on the left wing Tuchel is choosing between Marcus Rashford and Anthony Gordon, who notched a goal and an assist against Costa Rica.
Croatia: The medal-winning core remains, but friendlies raise concerns
Croatia qualified with little fuss, dropping points only once against the Czech Republic, but their pre-tournament friendlies left plenty of questions. Zlatko Dalic’s side fell to Colombia 1:2, Brazil 1:3, and Belgium 0:2, and only snatched a 2:1 win over Slovenia with a 90th-minute goal.
Dalic tested a three-center-back formation against top-tier teams, and this pragmatic approach seems likely against England. Luka Modric is already training without a protective mask, there are almost no injury concerns, but Croatia’s aging core and the potential Texas heat could be serious factors - especially if Perisic is heavily tasked as a wing-back.
Probable lineups
- England: Pickford, O’Riley, Stones, Guehi, James, Anderson, Rice, Rogers, Rashford, Saka, Kane.
- Croatia: Livakovic, Vuskovic, Sutalo, Gvardiol, Modric, Kovacic, Stanisic, Perisic, Pasalic, Kramaric, Budimir.
Match facts and head-to-head
- England won all eight of their World Cup qualifiers, with a combined scoreline of 22:0.
- Croatia lost to Colombia, Brazil, and Belgium in their warm-ups, and only beat Slovenia thanks to a late goal.
- Croatia have dealt England some painful defeats before: knocking them out of Euro 2008 and eliminating them in the 2018 World Cup semifinals.
- England have received no more than 1 yellow card in regular time in 7 of their last 8 World Cup matches.
- No more than 9 corners have been taken in regular time in 12 of England’s last 13 World Cup games, and in Croatia’s last 11 World Cup matches.
Tuchel versus Croatian memories: England vs Croatia prediction
Croatia know how to play these kinds of matches: they can endure, slow the tempo, and look for moments through the experience of Modric, Kovacic, and set pieces. But recent friendlies made it clear that Dalic’s team can’t always maintain their defensive compactness for the full 90 minutes against fast, high-quality opponents.
England look fresher, more versatile, and more reliable off the ball. Tuchel is unlikely to take big risks early on, but with the quality of Saka, Kane, Rashford, and midfield runners, the Three Lions have enough to break down Croatia’s defense at least once.
