Nice vs Montpellier: prediction, H2H and probable lineups — February 4, 2026
On Wednesday, February 4th, the Allianz Riviera will host a southern derby in the French Cup Round of 16: Nice welcomes Montpellier. Dive into our in-depth team analysis and prediction for this knockout showdown.
Match preview
Nice heads into this cup tie amidst a period of major transition. At the end of December 2025, the experienced Claude Puel took the reins from Franck Haise. Under their new manager, Les Aiglons have displayed wildly inconsistent form: January saw a painful 1-5 thrashing by Toulouse, followed by an emphatic 4-1 away victory over Nantes. The club is languishing near the bottom of the table, with just 22 points from 20 matches. In the previous round of the French Cup, Nice scraped past Nantes only in a penalty shootout, highlighting their ongoing issues with finishing and overall stability.
The hosts’ tactical approach now revolves around a return to Puel’s trademark disciplined defensive setup, while still aiming to exploit their pace out wide. The biggest headache for the Gym remains the injuries to key defenders (Abdelmonem, Bombito), forcing the coaching staff to constantly reshuffle the back line.
Montpellier, fighting for a Ligue 1 playoff spot in this season’s Ligue 2 (31 points from 21 matches), have found the French Cup to be a real "safe haven." Under the guidance of Zoumana Camara, they cruised through the last round with a 4-0 demolition of Metz. The Paladins are all about pragmatism right now: they’re willing to concede possession even to weaker opponents, banking on the genius of their talisman Téji Savanier and set pieces. Their league campaign has been far from impressive, so the Cup presents a golden opportunity to salvage a disappointing season and chase a prestigious trophy.
Montpellier’s away style is built on deep defending and direct, vertical football. They know how to exploit the spaces inevitably left by Nice’s attacking play. Given that, in last year’s cup meeting between these sides, Les Aiglons dismantled Montpellier’s defense 4-1, the visitors will surely arrive in Nice determined to exact “revenge through patience.”
Probable lineups
Nice: Dupe, Clauss, Juma, Makouango, Bard, Vanhoutte, Ndombele, Sanson, Diop, Louchet, Wahi
Montpellier: Lecomte, Tchato, Mouanga, Omeragic, Mincarelli, Pereira, Savanier, Issoufou, Pays, Mendy, Orakpo
Match facts & head-to-head
- In the last five matches between these teams: two wins for Nice, two draws, and one win for Montpellier
- Nice have won three of their last five matches, but conceded in every game
- Montpellier have won four of their last six encounters, keeping a clean sheet three times
Prediction
With attacking firepower and defensive frailties on both sides, this clash promises plenty of goals. My prediction: over 2.5 goals at 1.65
