Newcastle vs Qarabag: prediction, head-to-head and probable lineups – 24 February 2026
The second leg of the Champions League playoff round will take place on Tuesday in Newcastle at St. James' Park, where the local side Newcastle will face Qarabag. After the Magpies’ resounding 6-1 victory in Baku, the intrigue in this tie has all but vanished. However, issues of pride and UEFA coefficient points remain at stake. I suggest betting on goals in this match-up, with a strong chance of success.
Match preview
Eddie Howe’s side confidently solved the task in the first leg, staging a goal-fest in Azerbaijan with a 6-1 win. However, right after that, the Magpies fell to Manchester City in the Premier League (1-2) and remain stuck in mid-table, trailing the European spots by nine points. In the Champions League, though, Newcastle are unbeaten in four straight matches and, as usual, look much more solid at home.
Despite their overall stability, there are some squad issues: Thiaw is suspended, Schär and Livramento are injured, and Bruno Guimarães remains sidelined. On the positive side, Botman has recovered, and Joelinton is close to returning to the starting lineup. Even with recent slip-ups at St. James’ Park – defeats to Aston Villa (0-2) and Brentford (2-3) – the Magpies have still won four out of five European home games.
For Gurban Gurbanov’s team, the second leg is more about pride and gaining experience. The 1-6 defeat in Baku dashed any hopes of progressing further, though Qarabag performed admirably in the earlier stages. The postponement of their league match against Neftchi allowed the Agdam side to enjoy a full week of preparation and head to England in optimal physical condition.
Personnel losses are limited to the injury of Mustafazade, who is out for several months, but there are no other significant issues. Qarabag can play with freedom and try to capitalize on any complacency from the hosts. In European competition, the Azerbaijanis have often played boldly in attack, as evidenced by their high-scoring matches this season.
Probable lineups
- Newcastle: Pope, Burn, Botman, Hall, Trippier, Tonali, Willock, Barnes, Woltemade, Elanga, Gordon
- Qarabag: Kochalski, Mmaee, Medina, Silva, Jafarquliyev, Bikalo, Jankovic, Andrade, Caballero, Zoubir, Duran
Match facts and head-to-head
- The first match ended with a resounding 6-1 win for Newcastle.
- Both teams have scored in four of Newcastle’s last five Champions League games.
- Over 3.5 goals have been scored in six of Qarabag’s last seven Champions League matches.
Prediction
With a five-goal advantage, Newcastle are unlikely to push the tempo, but their quality and squad depth should allow them to control the game. Qarabag could take advantage of potential rotation from the hosts and get on the scoresheet, but an upset seems nearly impossible. Expect a calmer scenario with goals at both ends and a comfortable Magpies victory.
