Neighbor derby after play-off heartbreak: Prediction for the Poland vs Ukraine match - 31.05.2026
One of Sunday’s friendlies will take place in Poland, where Jan Urban’s squad faces Ukraine, who are embarking on a new era under Andrea Maldera. Both teams missed out on the 2026 World Cup, so this clash is far from a mere exhibition—it’s the first real test ahead of a rebuild for the Nations League.
Poland: Urban refreshes the squad, but Lewandowski remains the main reference point
Poland suffered a painful halt just short of the 2026 World Cup, losing 2-3 to Sweden in the play-off final after conceding the decisive goal in the 88th minute. Yet under Jan Urban, the team has looked sharper: before that setback, Poland had gone seven matches unbeaten, including two draws with the Netherlands, who topped the qualifying group.
Now, Urban has shaken up the lineup, steering towards youth - five debutants are in the squad, while several familiar faces have been left out. Still, Robert Lewandowski remains with the team, and his presence is crucial not just for the attack but for the dressing room as well, where a steady leader is needed after the play-off disappointment.
Ukraine: Maldera’s debut and Yarmolenko’s chance to close in on an all-time record
Ukraine are turning a new page after parting ways with Serhiy Rebrov: Andrea Maldera, who previously worked with Ukraine’s youth setup and assisted Roberto De Zerbi at Brighton and Marseille, has taken the helm. This is his first major challenge as a senior head coach, and it’s a tense start - against an opponent who has often caused Ukraine problems.
The match’s intrigue centers on the return of Andriy Yarmolenko, who hasn’t scored for the national team in some time but enjoyed a strong season with Dynamo Kyiv. He has 45 goals for Ukraine, just two shy of Andriy Shevchenko’s record, and it’s fitting that his chance to close the gap comes against Poland - a side that has beaten Ukraine in their last three encounters.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Poland lost 2-3 to Sweden in the 2026 World Cup play-off final, conceding the decisive goal in the 88th minute.
- After losing 2-3 to Sweden, Ukraine changed head coach: Andrea Maldera replaced Serhiy Rebrov.
- Poland have won their last three head-to-head matches against Ukraine by scores of 1-0, 2-0, and 3-1.
Prediction
At this stage, Poland look slightly more stable: Urban has already managed to implement his ideas, and the defeat to Sweden seems more like a painful slip than a sign of collapse. The Poles’ issue remains their defense, which - even with overall progress - continues to allow opponents chances, something especially dangerous against Dovbyk, Tsyhankov, Sudakov, and a motivated Yarmolenko.
Ukraine under Maldera could bring a fresher approach, but a new coach’s first match almost always comes with caution, searching for chemistry, and some instability in the details. The visitors have enough quality to score, but cohesion and home advantage tip the prediction in Poland’s favor in what should be an entertaining, goal-filled contest.
