Napoli vs Cagliari prediction, probable lineups and H2H - May 23, 2025
On May 23, 2025, the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium in Naples will host the final Serie A fixture between Napoli and Cagliari. Here’s a bet suggestion with a handicap in favor of one of the teams.
Preview
Napoli have a golden opportunity to secure the title in front of their home fans—a win over Cagliari will guarantee them the Scudetto, regardless of the outcome in the parallel clash between Como and Inter. The gap between the rivals in the standings is razor-thin—just one point—and now the destiny of the championship is entirely in the Neapolitans’ hands. All they need to do is match or better the performance of the Milan giants.
This return to the summit of Italian football was made possible by radical changes last summer. After finishing only 10th last season, Napoli’s management took a bold step—bringing in Antonio Conte. The experienced tactician swiftly instilled order, especially at the back. Over 37 rounds, the team has conceded just 27 goals—the best defensive record in Serie A.
However, the end of the season has been tense. After a confident run of four consecutive victories, Napoli suddenly hit a speed bump—two straight draws have reignited the title race. In the last round, the team failed to break down Parma’s defense, settling for a 0-0 draw away. Inter, meanwhile, let victory slip away in the dying moments of their home encounter with Lazio, finishing 2-2. As a result, both teams dropped points and the status quo in the standings was preserved.
The psychological pressure and proximity to the trophy seem to be taking their toll, but now comes the decisive moment. Napoli’s entire campaign boils down to one match that could become the climax of their season.
Cagliari, on the other hand, have no tournament motivation in this final round—the Sardinians have already secured their main objective by ensuring survival in Serie A. Five points clear of the drop zone, Davide Nicola’s men can approach the last game relaxed, free from pressure and with the opportunity to play with abandon.
In the previous round, the Sardinians delighted their home fans with a convincing 3-0 victory over Venezia. However, their away form remains inconsistent: Cagliari have suffered four defeats in their last six matches on the road. Still, there have been a few respectable draws at the homes of Juventus, Milan, and Atalanta.
So, despite the difference in objectives, Napoli shouldn’t expect an easy stroll. Cagliari travel with nothing to lose but plenty of ambition to finish the season on a high—a factor that always makes the opponent dangerous.
Probable lineups
- Napoli: Meret, Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Olivera, Spinazzola, Politano, Anguissa, Gilmour, McTominay, Lukaku, Raspadori
- Cagliari: Ciocci, Zappa, Mina, Luperto, Zortea, Adopo, Makoumbou, Deiola, Obert, N’Baiumbu, Piccoli
Match facts and H2H
- The reverse fixture ended in a rout, with Napoli securing a commanding 4-0 win away.
- Cagliari have not beaten Napoli in their last 8 head-to-head meetings. Four matches ended in draws, while Napoli won the other four.
- Five of Cagliari’s last six matches have seen the ‘over 2.5 goals’ bet land.
- In their last six matches, Napoli failed to keep a clean sheet only once.
Prediction
Bookmakers are offering Napoli’s victory at 1.17 odds. I believe Antonio Conte’s side, fueled by the support of their home crowd, will claim a confident win and secure the championship. My bet: Napoli to win with a -1.5 handicap at odds of 1.6.
