Montenegro vs Latvia: prediction and bet for the Nations League match on November 12, 2026
On paper, Montenegro’s advantage looks quite obvious, but will they be able to confirm it on the football pitch?
Teams’ standings and motivation
An intriguing situation has developed in Group C2. After four rounds, Montenegro sit top of the table with 10 points. Cyprus have collected 7 points, Armenia have 4, while Latvia prop up the standings with just one point.
As a result, the hosts are in control of the situation and can achieve their main objective as early as the November match. A win over Latvia would take Montenegro to 13 points and guarantee them first place regardless of their rivals’ results. Recall that the group winners earn direct promotion to League B.
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Latvia find themselves in the completely opposite situation. The team can no longer finish higher than third, so the remaining fixtures will be an opportunity to improve the overall impression of their campaign and prepare for future international competitions. That said, the visitors’ motivation should not be underestimated: the chance to spoil the group leaders’ celebrations will surely provide an additional incentive.
Form and recent results
Montenegro head into the November international window in a fairly positive mood. In September, the team defeated Cyprus (2-1) and Armenia (3-2), before travelling to Riga, where they overcame Latvia by the same scoreline. Their only setback came on October 5, when Montenegro failed to score against Armenia at home in a 0-0 draw.
As a result, the team have collected 10 points from four matches, scoring seven goals and conceding four. The results point to a well-balanced side, although the defence has not always looked flawless.
Latvia’s situation is considerably worse. After losing to Armenia (0-2), the team drew with Cyprus (0-0), then suffered a 1-2 defeat against Montenegro and lost to the Cypriots away from home by the same scoreline.
Their only point from this run is clearly not the result the fans were hoping for.
Latvia’s scoring record is particularly concerning: just two goals in four matches. At the same time, the team have conceded six, which hardly suggests a reliable defensive unit.
Squads and key players
Montenegro received some good news ahead of the November fixtures. Adam Marušić, who missed the previous matches through injury, has returned to Mirko Vučinić’s squad. Milan Vukotić has also recovered and is now available to help the national team after previously being sidelined.
The hosts’ main attacking hope is Nikola Krstović. The Atalanta striker has already scored twice in the current Nations League campaign and is capable of creating danger from virtually any situation. Vasilije Adžić, who has also found the net twice, should not be overlooked either. The young Sassuolo midfielder is gradually becoming one of the most exciting players in the national team.
Stefan Savić also deserves special attention, as he will be tasked with organising the team’s defensive efforts. In attack, the experience of Stevan Jovetić and the energy of Milutin Osmajić could provide Montenegro with an additional edge.
In addition, Aleksa Maraš has been called up for the November squad for the first time. The Košice striker has enjoyed an impressive spell at club level, scoring nine goals and providing one assist in 12 matches.
For Latvia, the main squad development is the return of Jānis Ikaunieks. The experienced attacking midfielder missed the previous international camp due to injury but is now ready to help the national team again. His return is especially important given Latvia’s creative struggles.
Vladislavs Gutkovskis, Roberts Uldriķis, Eduards Dašķevičs and Andrejs Cigaņiks are also worth highlighting. The latter can create danger with his runs from the flank, while Gutkovskis and Uldriķis will be responsible for finishing attacks.
Coaching battle and tactics
Montenegro are managed by Mirko Vučinić, who has been given the opportunity to lead the national team as head coach. His approach calls for intense football, active work in midfield and the use of the attacking players’ individual quality.
In the upcoming match, the hosts will surely look to seize the initiative from the opening minutes. Given the tournament situation, Montenegro cannot afford to settle for mere possession: they need the result, so sustained pressure on the opposition defence should be expected.
Latvia are coached by Italian Paolo Nicolato. His team will most likely focus on compactness and defensive organisation. The visitors must prevent their opponents from operating freely between the lines and look for opportunities to launch quick counterattacks.
Latvia’s main problem is that their defence begins to struggle badly under prolonged pressure. If Montenegro manage to open the scoring early, the visitors will have to take more risks, creating additional opportunities for the hosts.
Head-to-head history
There have not yet been many matches in the history of this international rivalry. Before the November meeting, the teams had faced each other four times: Montenegro won twice, while the other two encounters ended in draws. Latvia have yet to defeat this opponent.
The most recent match took place in Riga on October 2, 2026. Montenegro came out on top 2-1. It was a fairly tense encounter, but the visitors managed to secure the necessary result and confirmed their superiority in terms of quality.
Now the teams will meet in Podgorica, where the hosts’ advantage should be even more pronounced.
In my view, Montenegro are the clear favourites for the upcoming match. The hosts have a stronger squad, are in significantly better form and have serious motivation in the standings. Moreover, Latvia have yet to show convincing football either in attack or defence.
It is unlikely that the visitors will willingly leave all the available space to their opponents, but maintaining their resistance for 90 minutes will be difficult. Montenegro will surely look to exploit the flanks, involve their midfielders in attacks and deliver the ball into the penalty area on a regular basis.
I would not rule out Latvia creating several dangerous chances, particularly if the hosts become too carried away in attack. Nevertheless, Montenegro are clearly superior in terms of overall performance and individual quality.
I expect Vučinić’s side to make the most of their home advantage and see the match through to a comfortable victory.
My prediction: over 2.5 total goals.
