Monaco vs Lyon prediction, H2H and probable lineups - 3 January 2026
One of the headline fixtures of Ligue 1's 17th round will take place on Saturday at the "Stade Louis II" in Monaco, where the local side Monaco welcomes Lyon. Here’s my betting pick for this clash, offering good odds for success.
Match preview
Monaco wrapped up 2025 with a series of challenges. Over their last eight matches, the team managed only three victories, with just one coming in Ligue 1—a sensational triumph over PSG (1-0). The other wins came in the Champions League against Galatasaray (1-0) and in the French Cup against Auxerre (2-1). In the remaining matches, the Monegasques suffered defeats and managed only one draw. This poor run has dropped the club down to ninth in the table, making the fight for a Champions League spot next season increasingly difficult.
To make matters worse, Monaco are facing significant squad issues. Krépin Diatta and Lamine Camara are away on international duty with Senegal, preparing for their Africa Cup of Nations round of 16 clash against Sudan. Injuries also keep Ansu Fati and Paul Pogba sidelined for this match.
Lyon, on the other hand, finished 2025 with much more confidence. In their last six games, "Les Gones" suffered just one defeat—a Ligue 1 loss to Lorient (0-1). Notably, in that game, Paulo Fonseca’s side played more than a half with ten men after Ainsley Maitland-Niles was sent off. Discipline has been an issue for Lyon lately: besides that red card, the team picked up three more reds in just a month, including Nicolás Tagliafico’s sending-off against PSG. However, the key turning point has been the return of head coach Paulo Fonseca, who had been absent for nine months due to suspension.
Lyon also have some absences linked to the Africa Cup of Nations, but they are less severe: only Moussa Niakhaté, who also plays for Senegal, has departed for the tournament. Injuries keep Nicolás Tagliafico and Malick Fofana out, with Fofana sidelined since October. There’s been plenty of talk around Fofana, as he was tipped for a move to a bigger club this winter, but his injury may impact his future and keep him at Lyon for now.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Four of Monaco’s last five matches have featured under three goals.
- Lyon are on a three-match winning streak.
- Lyon scored first in five of their last six matches.
- The last ten head-to-head meetings between these teams have been perfectly balanced: each side has claimed five wins.
- The most recent match between these teams at Monaco’s ground ended in a 2-0 home victory.
Probable lineups
- Monaco: Hrádecký - Vanderson, Kehrer, Salisu, Henrique - Teze, Zakaria, Golovin - Akliouche, Balogun, Biereth
- Lyon: Greif - Maitland-Niles, Hateboer, Kluivert, Abner Vinicius - Morton, Tolisso, Merah - Šulc, Moreira, Satriano
Prediction
I expect this to be a low-scoring encounter. Monaco have often needed just a single goal in recent matches, and Lyon have also been involved in several tight, low-scoring affairs. Therefore, the most logical bet looks to be under 3.5 total goals.
