Moldovan favorite faces upset threat: prediction for Aluminij vs Sheriff
The second leg of the UEFA Europa League first qualifying round between Aluminij and Sheriff is set for July 16, 2026, at the Aluminij Sports Park in Kidričevo. After a goalless draw in Tiraspol, the tie remains wide open: the Slovenian club now has a golden chance for an upset on home turf, while the more seasoned Sheriff must prove their quality away from home.
Aluminij: defensive discipline keeps miracle hopes alive
In the first meeting, Jure Arsić’s side withstood tremendous pressure and denied the favorite any goals. Sheriff controlled 63% of possession and fired 24 shots, but only five were on target - meaning Florian Raduha didn’t have to make constant heroics in goal.
The Slovenians approach the return leg with no new personnel concerns and are likely to stick with their 3-5-2 formation featuring two strikers. Matija Boben has shored up the defense, and home form provides a reason for cautious optimism: Aluminij have scored in seven of their last ten home matches across the Slovenian league and cup.
Sheriff: match sharpness should help avoid disaster
Viktor Mikhailov’s team has had a shaky start to the season. After a confident 3-0 win over Real Sireți, the Tiraspol side dropped points against Politehnica-UTM, couldn’t break down Aluminij’s defense, and then beat Zimbru 4-2 - again showing vulnerability at the back.
Ivan Dyulgerov will return between the sticks after being rested in the domestic league. Sheriff have already played three competitive matches this season, so they should have the edge in match rhythm, but a possible shift to a more attacking lineup could leave space for the hosts’ vertical counterattacks.
Match facts and head-to-head
- The first leg in Tiraspol ended goalless.
- In eight of Aluminij’s last eight games and in eight of Sheriff’s last nine, at least one team failed to score.
- Six of the Slovenians’ last eight matches and seven of the Tiraspol side’s last nine have featured fewer than three goals.
Can Aluminij withstand the pressure again? Aluminij vs Sheriff prediction
The hosts have no need to open up from the start and turn this into an end-to-end affair. Aluminij can once again rely on a compact defense, vertical passing, and quick breaks - especially given their knack for finding scoring chances at home even against Slovenia’s top sides.
However, repeating a flawless defensive display will be tough. Sheriff have more competitive minutes under their belt, boast a higher individual quality, and after the first-leg setback, should be much sharper in the final third this time around.
