Moldova vs Italy prediction, H2H and probable lineups - 13.11.2025
One of the fixtures of matchday 9 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifiers will take place on Thursday at the Zimbru Arena in Chisinau, as Moldova hosts the Italian national team. Here’s a bet suggestion for this encounter with strong chances of success.
Match preview
The Moldovan national team has finally snapped its dismal losing streak in qualification by earning a draw away against Estonia. However, their defensive frailties persist: 26 goals conceded and just a single point collected. At home, Moldova has lost all its qualifiers, often failing to score, making them not just the underdog in this clash, but throughout the entire campaign.
Despite setbacks, Lilian Popescu’s squad has started to show faint signs of progress—scoring in two consecutive matches. Still, up against Italy’s formidable attack, even minor positives are unlikely to matter. With a key defender suspended and continued squad instability, the hosts are in for another tough night on home soil.
Italy continues to deliver stability and attacking prowess under the guidance of Gennaro Gattuso. After a 3-0 win over Israel, the Azzurri extended their qualifying streak to five straight victories, scoring at least three goals in four of those games. Italy’s defense has also been outstanding—six clean sheets in eight qualifiers so far.
Although first place in the group seems out of reach due to a strong Norway side, the visitors remain motivated—to improve their goal difference and prepare for decisive matches ahead. The absence of Barella and Kean are notable losses, but Italy’s squad depth means they can compensate without a drop in quality. Facing Moldova is a prime chance to consolidate their momentum.
Probable lineups
- Moldova: Avram, Ryabchuk, Platika, Kracun, Dumbrevanu, Ionita, Ratse, Bogaciuc, Bodisteanu, Perchun, Nicolaescu
- Italy: Donnarumma, Bastoni, Dimarco, Di Lorenzo, Calafiori, Tonali, Cambiaso, Cristante, Locatelli, Retegui, Esposito
Match facts and head-to-head
- Moldova has lost 7 home World Cup qualifiers in a row
- Italy has won 5 qualifiers in a row, scoring 16 goals in that span
- In the last 5 meetings between these sides, Moldova has failed to score a single goal
Prediction
Italy is expected to secure all three points and continue their confident run. Moldova’s defensive issues leave them unable to contain the visitors’ attacking power, especially considering their home record. The optimal bet looks to be “Italy to win with a -2.5 handicap” at odds of 1.60.
