Melbourne Victory vs Wellington Phoenix prediction, H2H and probable lineups - December 29, 2025
Melbourne Victory
Wellington Phoenix
One of the fixtures of A-League Round 10 will take place on Monday at Melbourne's AAMI Park, where local side Melbourne Victory will host Wellington Phoenix. Here’s a look at the best bet for this clash, offering solid chances for success.
Match preview
Melbourne Victory have hit their stride as the calendar year comes to a close and are now battling for a return to the top six. The team has won their last two matches—beating Adelaide United (2-1) and city rivals Melbourne City (1-0)—showcasing a confident defensive display. Notably, their stability has improved: unbeaten in their last three games (2 wins, 1 draw), conceding just once. However, their home form has been less convincing: before the win over Adelaide, they had a draw and a loss. Tony Popovic’s side continues to search for the right balance between attack and defense.
Nicholas Vergos remains the focal point up front, already netting twice in the league. The creative midfield trio of Velupillay, Mata, and Santos Rodrigus have also been influential, frequently joining attacks and crafting opportunities, though their finishing still leaves room for improvement. The team still needs to boost its scoring output, but against an inconsistent opponent, their chances look strong.
Wellington Phoenix, level on points, currently edge ahead of Victory in the table only on goal difference. Consistency remains elusive for the Phoenix: in their last six matches, they've suffered four defeats and won just twice. Last time out, the Phoenix defeated Central Coast Mariners 3-1, but prior to that, they fell to Newcastle Jets and Auckland FC by a combined 2-6 margin. The team concedes often and is unlikely to keep a clean sheet against the hosts.
On the road, Wellington are still searching for their first win: they've drawn twice and lost once away from home. In each of those three away games, both teams found the net—Phoenix can create chances, but persistent defensive lapses cost them. The coaching staff are yet to find a stable defensive setup, which remains their main issue. Up front, Ifeanyi has been a standout, already tallying four goals.
Probable lineups
- Melbourne Victory: Duncan, Rawlins, Esposito, Miranda, Davidson, D’Arrigo, Valadon, Velupillay, Mata, Santos Rodrigus, Vergos
- Wellington Phoenix: Oluwayemi, Kelly-Heald, James, Hughes, Piper, Ifeanyi, Armiento, Najjarine, Rufer, Nagasawa, Sheridan
Match facts and head-to-head
- Melbourne Victory have beaten Wellington Phoenix three times in their last five home meetings, without losing once.
- The "both teams to score" bet has landed in eight of Phoenix’s last nine matches.
- All three of Phoenix’s away games this season have seen both sides score.
Prediction
Melbourne’s form and confidence are on the rise—two straight wins in the league, solid defensive organization, and a fierce top-six battle. Phoenix are always a tricky opponent, but their lackluster away form and shaky defense tip the scales in favor of the hosts. Still, Wellington consistently find the net and are unlikely to leave empty-handed. The optimal bet here is “both teams to score” at 1.69 odds.
