Leeds United vs Burnley: prediction, head-to-head stats and probable lineups — 01.05.2026
One of the fixtures in round 35 of the English Premier League will be played on Friday at Elland Road in Leeds, where the local side, Leeds United, host Burnley. The hosts come into the match nursing the wounds of a painful FA Cup exit but boasting a solid Premier League run, while the visitors are already playing without much to fight for in the table and are clearly struggling up front.
Match preview
Leeds return to Elland Road after an emotionally charged FA Cup semi-final against Chelsea, where Daniel Farke's side fell short in a hard-fought battle. That defeat snapped an eight-match unbeaten run in all competitions, but in the league, the Peacocks are holding firm: five Premier League games without a loss, including wins over Manchester United and Wolverhampton.
The main concern for the hosts is their squad status after the cup battle. Bijol, Gudmundsson, and Okafor picked up knocks, but the return of Rodon and Stach gives Farke crucial depth in the spine of the team. For Leeds, this game is not just a chance to pick up points, but an opportunity to mentally bounce back from cup disappointment and move closer to a calm end to the season.
Burnley approach this match as a side whose season is all but over. After a narrow defeat to Manchester City, their winless run has stretched to eight games, and six losses in their last seven matches have effectively ended any survival intrigue.
That defeat to City wasn’t a thrashing on the scoreboard, but the gulf in quality was clear: their opponents fired 28 shots, while the Clarets barely created a threat going forward. Scott Parker’s side have been anaemic in attack all spring - just two goals in their last six Premier League matches - which makes this trip to Leeds especially daunting.
Probable lineups
- Leeds United: Darlow, Struijk, Rodon, Bornauw, Tanaka, Ampadu, Justin, Bogle, Nmecha, Aaronson, Calvert-Lewin.
- Burnley: Dubravka, Walker, Ekdal, Esteve, Hartmann, Luiz, Ward-Prowse, Ugochukwu, Edwards, Anthony, Flemming.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Leeds are unbeaten in their last five Premier League matches, three of which ended in draws.
- Burnley have gone eight games without a win and have lost six of their last seven outings.
- Back in October this season, Burnley defeated Leeds 2-0 at home, but since 2020 Leeds have won four of their six Premier League meetings.
- Farke’s team have picked up just 54 yellow cards (fourth best in the league).
- In four of their last five matches, the Whites have seen the total go over 2.5 goals.
In six of their last seven games, the Clarets have received fewer than four yellow cards.
On average, Scott Parker’s side win 3.7 corners per match (third worst in the league).
Prediction
Leeds look like the side with clearer motivation, a more stable game plan, and the advantage of playing at home. Yes, the cup defeat and fresh injuries might dent their rhythm, but Farke’s team haven’t fallen apart in the league for a long time and know how to grind out results even in tough fixtures. Burnley score too little and lose too often to be considered genuine contenders for a comeback at Elland Road. The visitors might put up a fight, but with their current attacking woes, it’s hard to see them withstanding the hosts’ pressure for the full 90 minutes.
