Las Vegas isn't heading to Brooklyn just to make up the numbers: prediction for New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces - 01.07.2026
New York Liberty
Las Vegas Aces
The Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty face off late Tuesday night at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn. The teams will battle for the Commissioner’s Cup Championship, and bookmakers have pegged Las Vegas as a +2.5 underdog with a total set at 174.5 points.
New York Liberty: home court and questions after defeat
New York boasts a 12-8 record and remains one of the league’s most balanced teams on both ends of the floor. The Liberty average 87.8 points per game, shoot 46.0% from the field, and allow just 83.5 points - a mark that ranks third-best in the WNBA.
However, their last outing left a bitter aftertaste: Liberty fell to the Golden State Valkyries, 67-76. The team made only 21 of 52 field goals, grabbed just 24 rebounds, and turned the ball over 11 times—struggling to maintain any sort of offensive rhythm.
Defensively, New York has been solid all season: opponents shoot just 32.1% from beyond the arc against the Liberty and collect 31.4 rebounds per game. But against Las Vegas, who play at a faster pace and with greater offensive efficiency, home court alone might not be enough.
Las Vegas Aces: explosive offense and Wilson’s form
Las Vegas enters the matchup with a 14-5 record and one of the league’s most potent offenses. The Aces put up 90.7 points per game, shoot 48.8% from the field and 36.8% from deep, and lead the WNBA in total assists with 436 on the season.
In their last outing, the Aces outgunned the Chicago Sky 107-99, displaying elite offensive efficiency. Las Vegas converted 33 of 63 field goals, knocked down 10 of 25 threes, and dominated at the free-throw line - sinking 31 of 37 attempts.
Still, the Aces’ defense isn’t flawless: they allow 86.4 points per game and let opponents shoot 43.9% from the floor. But Las Vegas makes up for this with tempo, quality possessions, and relentless pressure on opposing defenses.
Match facts
- Las Vegas stands at 14-5, averaging 90.7 points per game.
- New York holds a 12-8 record and gives up 83.5 points per game.
- Aces opened as +2.5 underdogs, with the game total set at 174.5.
The Aces’ offense can keep it close: prediction for New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces
New York will have the home court advantage, but their current form is far from perfect. The loss to Golden State showed that the team can get stuck in half-court offense and lose control of the boards - issues that usually prove costly against Las Vegas.
The Aces look more convincing offensively, move the ball better, and have A'ja Wilson in top form. Even if New York makes it a tight finish, the spread on Las Vegas holds value: this team is strong enough to fight for the win until the very last possession.
