Italy vs Norway prediction, H2H and probable lineups – 16 November 2025
One of the fixtures of Matchday 10 in the 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign will take place on Tuesday at the iconic San Siro in Milan, where Italy will host Norway. I’m backing a bet on goals in this clash, as there’s a solid chance for an entertaining outcome.
Match preview
This is a do-or-die encounter for Italy in their battle to qualify for the World Cup. However, Gennaro Gattuso’s men face almost impossible odds: even a win won’t be enough—they need to triumph by at least a nine-goal margin, which is virtually unthinkable.
Italy could have lost even this slim mathematical hope if not for a dramatic finish in their previous match, where they edged out Moldova with late goals from Gianluca Mancini and Francesco Pio Esposito. It’s only logical to assume the Azzurri already have their minds set on the playoffs, where their World Cup hopes will be truly on the line.
Norway, on the other hand, have all but secured their first World Cup appearance since 1998. Back then, the Scandinavians reached the Round of 16, where they were knocked out by—who else—Italy. In their last outing, Norway cruised past Estonia 4-1, with Alexander Sørloth and Erling Haaland both bagging braces.
The main intrigue here: can Erling Haaland keep up his jaw-dropping scoring form? This season, he’s already netted 30 goals and has only twice left the pitch without a goal or assist—an astonishing stat even by his standards.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Italy are on a three-match winning streak.
- Eight of Italy’s last ten games have featured more than two goals.
- Norway are unbeaten in eleven consecutive matches.
- Norway have scored first in nine of their last ten games.
- The sides have met eight times: Italy have won six, Norway once, and one match ended in a draw.
Probable lineups
- Italy: Donnarumma – Di Lorenzo, Bastoni, Mancini – Orsolini, Tonali, Locatelli, Ricci, Dimarco – Raspadori, Retegui
- Norway: Nyland – Ryerson, Ajer, Heggem, Wolfe – Bobb, Berge, Berg, Nusa – Sørloth, Haaland
Prediction
I expect an open, high-scoring affair. Italy will go all out in attack, looking to at least improve their goal difference, even if it’s unlikely to change their fate in the standings. Norway, with Haaland up front, almost never leave the pitch without scoring. My prediction: over 2.5 goals.
