Italy vs Moldova prediction, H2H and probable lineups — June 9, 2025
As part of the European qualifying tournament for the World Cup, Italy will face Moldova. The match will take place in Reggio Emilia on Monday, June 9. Kick-off is scheduled for 20:45 Central European Time. I'm backing a bet on a high-scoring affair here.
Match preview
Italy have endured a rough patch since their Euro 2020 triumph. Their previous World Cup qualification ended in disaster with a shocking playoff exit at the hands of North Macedonia, meaning the Azzurri sensationally missed the world stage for a second consecutive time.
After that, the Squadra Azzurra only scraped through to the European Championship, edging Ukraine on tiebreakers. Last summer in Germany, things didn’t improve much. Spalletti’s side barely advanced from the group stage and then fell to Switzerland in the round of 16 with little resistance.
Last autumn, Italy performed well in the Nations League, only surrendering top spot in their group to France in the final match. In the quarterfinals, after a home defeat to Germany, Italy nearly pulled off a sensational comeback, erasing a 0–3 deficit, but ultimately fell short.
The start of this World Cup qualifying campaign has been nothing short of catastrophic. Italy suffered a heavy defeat to Norway, conceding three goals in a half for the second straight match. There’s still a long way to go, but their main rivals, led by Haaland and company, remain flawless so far.
Moldova, meanwhile, remain perennial outsiders in European football and cannot boast any notable achievements. Their squad lacks well-known players and the overall quality leaves much to be desired.
In the Nations League, Moldova were relegated to Division D after the very first campaign and stayed there until last autumn. In the last European Championship qualifiers, they stunned Poland with a victory, but ultimately finished fourth out of five teams in their group.
This autumn, Moldova topped a group with Malta and Andorra to return to Nations League Division C—a modest success. However, their start to World Cup qualifying has gone predictably poorly.
First, Moldova suffered a 0-5 home drubbing against Norway, then failed to get past Estonia—losing 2-3. There’s little positivity to find in these results, nor in their recent friendly against Poland, which also ended in defeat for Kleshchenko’s men.
Match facts
- Italy are winless in their last four matches.
- Italy have lost their last two home games.
- Moldova have lost three matches in a row.
- Moldova have won just once in their last eight away games.
- Italy average 2 goals per game at home, while Moldova average 0.6 goals per game away.
Probable lineups
- Italy: Donnarumma, Di Lorenzo, Gatti, Bastoni, Dimarco, Tonali, Rovella, Barella, Zappacosta, Orsolini, Retegui.
- Moldova: Avram, Mudrac, Baboglo, Posmac, Cojocaru, Caimacov, Rățe, Ioniță, Reabciuk, Moțpan, Nicolaescu.
H2H
- Italy have won all 5 previous head-to-heads against Moldova.
- On the road, Moldova have scored just once against Italy in those encounters.
Prediction
The favorite here is obvious. Moldova simply have no chance in this match, and Italy are expected to seize a convincing victory after recent setbacks. Dropping points against such a weak opponent could cost Spalletti’s men dearly, as they aim to reach the World Cup for the first time in 12 years. I expect a rout, and my bet is on over 2.5 total goals.
