Granada vs Rayo Vallecano prediction, H2H and probable lineups - January 6, 2026
One of the ties in the Round of 32 of the 2025/26 Copa del Rey will take place on Tuesday at the Nuevo Los Cármenes stadium in Granada, where the home side Granada will host Rayo Vallecano. Let's break down the odds for this clash, taking into account head-to-head history and the current form of both teams.
- See also: Sporting Lisbon vs Vitoria Guimaraes prediction, H2H and probable lineups - January 6, 2026
Match preview
Pacheta's side are struggling their way through the cup draw, but with troubles mounting in the Segunda, their cup run seems to have taken a back seat. The hard-fought win over Tenerife in the previous round came at a cost, and a current run of four matches without a win is a clear sign of a prolonged crisis. The main objective for the season is to secure their place in the Segunda, so expect squad rotation and less motivation against a La Liga opponent.
The squad situation is also far from ideal: Diallo and Zidane are out, while Casadesus is a doubt. Nassei returns from suspension to bolster the back line, but overall Granada are heavily depleted. Still, the home advantage could be crucial—Granada rarely lose at Los Cármenes, having suffered just one defeat in their last seven home games.
The Madrid side are fighting on three fronts, and despite a dip in league form, they remain strong in both the Copa del Rey and the Conference League. The win over Real Ávila in the previous round was only secured in extra time, but the squad depth at Iñigo Pérez’s disposal allows for rotation without sacrificing quality. The team remains competitive, even with an eight-match winless streak in La Liga.
Rayo will be without five key players, including Pathé Ciss and Abdul Mumin, but the squad still boasts plenty of options—Trejo, Pérez, and Mendy are all capable of getting the job done and securing a place in the next round. Head-to-head statistics are particularly telling: the "Bees" have not lost to Granada since 2013 and have scored at least twice in the majority of those encounters.
Probable lineups
- Granada: Astralaga, Williams, Lama, Ormigo, Sáenz, Alcaraz, Arnaiz, Serna, Faye, Sola, Pascual
- Rayo Vallecano: Batalla, Felipe, Mendy, Ratiu, Chavarría, Valentín, Díaz, Pérez Martínez, Trejo, García, Camello
Match facts and head-to-head
- Rayo Vallecano are unbeaten in their last 11 matches against Granada, winning nine of them.
- In 9 of the last 11 head-to-heads, the Madrid side have scored at least two goals.
- Granada have lost just once in their last seven home games.
Prediction
Despite having the home advantage, Granada’s chances are slim—the team is clearly focusing on their battle for survival in the Segunda, and the cup is more of a distraction at this point. Rayo may not be dazzling in La Liga, but they have a strong track record against the Andalusians and, even with rotation, boast greater depth and quality. Expect the visitors to exploit Granada’s weaknesses and book a confident place in the Round of 16.
