Goals galore or a confident start for the hosts? PSV Eindhoven vs Shakhtar Donetsk prediction
PSV and Shakhtar will meet on Thursday, 10 September, in the opening round of the UEFA Champions League league phase. The match will take place at the Philips Stadion in Eindhoven, with kick-off at 18:45 CET. I am backing a goals market bet for this game.
H2H and statistical facts
- PSV are on a run of four consecutive victories.
- Both teams have scored in each of PSV's last five matches.
- The Dutch side have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last ten games.
- Shakhtar have suffered just one defeat in five matches this season.
- The teams have met just once before, with PSV winning 3-2 in 2024.
A strong start for the Dutch side
PSV head into the start of the Champions League league phase in excellent form. The team have played five rounds of the new Eredivisie season and collected 13 points, recording four wins and one draw. After a 2-2 draw with Fortuna Sittard, the Eindhoven side went on to beat Excelsior, Groningen, Utrecht and Ajax. Their two most recent victories have been particularly impressive: PSV thrashed Utrecht 6-1 before beating Ajax 3-1 away from home.
The start of the season was not perfect for the team, however. PSV surprisingly lost 4-0 to AZ in the Dutch Super Cup, but Peter Bosz's side have improved significantly since that defeat. The Eindhoven club have scored 18 goals in five league matches, with four of those five games producing at least three goals from PSV. That underlines the hosts' considerable attacking potential ahead of their first European fixture.
PSV's performances in the most recent rounds deserve particular attention. The victory over Ajax was especially important from a psychological perspective: the team not only took three points in a high-profile fixture but also showed character by scoring twice after the break. Ricardo Pepi, Lutsharel Geertruida and Esmir Bajraktarević found the net in Amsterdam. PSV therefore arrive at the meeting with Shakhtar on a four-match winning streak.
The home factor could also provide a significant advantage for the Dutch club. The match will be played at the Philips Stadion, where PSV traditionally look to seize the initiative and play on the front foot. At the same time, the upcoming fixture marks the start of the hosts' European campaign, with even tougher tests to come, including matches against Porto, Real Madrid, Atlético Madrid and RB Leipzig.
A less convincing start to the season for Turan's side
Shakhtar have also made a reasonably confident start to the new Ukrainian league season, although their results cannot yet be described as consistent. After five rounds, the Donetsk club have four wins and one defeat. At the start of the campaign, Shakhtar beat Kudrivka and Epicentr before overcoming Kharkiv, but then lost 2-0 to Polissya. In the most recent round, Arda Turan's side bounced back by beating Karpaty 2-1 in Lviv.
It is particularly important for Shakhtar that the team are capable of responding quickly to setbacks. The defeat by Polissya was their first serious blow of the season, but they immediately responded by taking three points in their next match. The game against Karpaty was far from straightforward: Shakhtar conceded first but managed to turn the match around and score twice. That resilience could prove useful in the Champions League, where mistakes against opponents of PSV's calibre are usually punished severely.
Shakhtar's attacking potential remains one of the team's main strengths. The Donetsk club can create chances thanks to the pace of their attacking players and their energetic work down the flanks, although they will have to be much more cautious in Eindhoven than they are in the Ukrainian Premier League.
There is an additional challenge: Shakhtar will play their first Champions League league-phase match away from home, while their home fixtures in the European campaign will be staged at Stamford Bridge in London. The Donetsk club therefore have an opportunity in the opening round to immediately test themselves against a side that have already built up considerable momentum in their domestic league. The previous meeting between the two clubs in Eindhoven in the Champions League also produced a genuine thriller: in the 2024/25 season, PSV trailed 0-2 but came back to win 3-2 in the closing stages.
Probable line-ups
- PSV Eindhoven: Kovář, Dest, Geertruida, Obispo, Kostić, Sano, Wanner, Til, van Bommel, Perišić, Pepi.
- Shakhtar Donetsk: Riznyk, Pedro Henrique, Matviyenko, Bondar, Vinícius Tobias, Marlon Gomes, Ocheretko, Isaque Silva, Newerton, Alisson Santana, Kauã Elias.
What to bet on?
PSV look like clear favourites for the upcoming encounter thanks to their current form, potent attack and home advantage, but I would not write off the Ukrainian side. Shakhtar will certainly look to stay compact and exploit quick transitions, although keeping PSV's defence at bay for 90 minutes will be extremely difficult against one of the Netherlands' most prolific clubs. At the same time, Turan's side are capable of causing problems and imposing their style of play, so I am backing both teams to score.
