Genoa are gaining momentum, but an angry giant stands in their way. Genoa vs Milan prediction
Genoa and Milan will meet on Sunday, November 8, in the 11th round of the Italian Serie A. The match will be played at the Luigi Ferraris Stadium in Genoa, with kickoff at 15:00 CET. I am backing a bet on the match result and total goals.
H2H and statistical facts
- Genoa are on a three-match winning streak.
- At home, Genoa have conceded just one goal in their previous four matches.
- Milan have conceded in three consecutive matches.
- Genoa have been unable to beat Milan in 11 consecutive matches.
- Milan have not lost in Genoa for 10 years.
- Genoa have scored 8 of their 10 goals in the opening 30 minutes.
- Half of Milan's goals have come between the 60th and 75th minutes.
Genoa: three straight wins and confidence after beating Juventus
Genoa are gradually recovering from a difficult start to the season. Daniele De Rossi's side have already collected 13 points and sit 11th in the table. Not long ago, the Genoese club were closer to the relegation zone, but a run of successful performances has significantly improved their position. The hosts now look far more confident and will be aiming to continue their rise against one of the contenders for the top spots.
Genoa's latest Serie A run is particularly impressive. The team have won three matches in a row: first edging past Venezia 1-0, then comfortably overcoming Juventus 2-0, before beating Lecce 2-1 away from home in the previous round. The Genoese are not only picking up points but also showing that they can handle opponents of varying levels.
The victory over Juventus sent an important signal to their rivals. Genoa played in an organized manner, prevented the Turin side from dictating the game and secured the result through a disciplined performance. The match against Lecce also highlighted the team's character: even away from home, Genoa managed to see out the game and claim victory despite the hosts' resistance.
At the same time, their defensive problems have not disappeared. Genoa have conceded 14 goals in 10 matches, and before their recent winning run, the team lost to Napoli and Lazio at the start of the season. Milan represent a completely different level of attacking threat, so it will be crucial for the hosts to remain compact and prevent their opponents from creating too many chances. Still, their current form gives Genoa every reason to expect a strong performance.
Milan: the derby was won, but a European defeat exposed their weaknesses
Milan head to Genoa sitting fifth in the table. The team have collected 21 points from 10 rounds and remain among the leaders. In Serie A, the Rossoneri have won six matches, drawn three and suffered just one defeat. Such a start gives them reason to believe they can challenge for the top positions, although the competition remains fierce.
The main event of the previous round was a 3-1 derby victory over Inter. Milan showed excellent attacking efficiency and made the most of their chances against their fierce rivals. It was their third win in the last four Serie A matches, as well as an important emotional boost ahead of further challenges. Ruben Amorim's team once again showed that they are capable of delivering in big games.
However, on Thursday Milan surprisingly lost 0-2 at home to Ferencvaros in the Europa League. The defeat was an unpleasant contrast to their successful derby performance and showed that the team do not always maintain consistency during a congested schedule.
Milan look far more convincing in attack than their upcoming opponents. The team have scored 21 goals in 10 Serie A matches, while Genoa have found the net just 10 times. The Rossoneri have also conceded 12 goals, which is another better figure than Genoa's. Milan possess greater attacking firepower, but they will face an opponent who are currently on the rise and have won their last three matches.
Probable lineups
- Genoa: Bailyov, Marcandalli, Ostigard, Vazquez, Ehizibue, Ellertsson, Traore, Frendrup, Messias, El Shaarawy, Osmajic.
- Milan: Maignan, Pavlovic, de Winter, Gila, Diawara, Moreira, Musah, Modric, Rabiot, Pulisic, Ramos.
What to bet on?
Genoa come into this match in excellent form and will be counting on the support of their home crowd. Milan have a stronger attack and occupy a place in the upper half of the table, although their European defeat could affect the team's mood. The Genoese are capable of making life difficult for the favorite, but the visitors' quality should ultimately prove decisive. My pick is for Milan not to lose and for the total to be under 3.5 goals.
