Gabon aim to cement their place among the leaders as Lesotho look to salvage their campaign: Africa Cup of Nations qualifying prediction
Lesotho and Gabon meet on Tuesday, November 17, in the fourth round of 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifying. The match will be played at Peter Mokaba Stadium in Polokwane, South Africa, with kick-off at 14:00 Central European Time. I’m backing goals in this one.
Head-to-head and stats
- Lesotho have conceded in six consecutive matches.
- Gabon scored first in five of their last six matches.
- Lesotho are winless in five straight matches, having lost their last four.
- Gabon have never lost to Lesotho, recording five wins and two draws.
Lesotho: another slip-up could end their hopes
Lesotho are enduring a dismal qualifying campaign. Bob Mafoso’s side have lost all three of their opening matches, falling to Niger (1-2), Morocco (0-2) and Gabon (0-2). The latest defeat was particularly painful: they again struggled against a stronger opponent, losing away from home after conceding twice in the second half. Lesotho remain pointless and bottom of Group A.
The team’s problems are most evident in attack. Lesotho have scored just once in three matches, and that goal against Niger came from the penalty spot. After the early setbacks, head coach Bob Mafoso said his players had created enough chances to get a better result, but their finishing let them down.
Against Morocco and Gabon, however, the gulf in class was clear, while defensive errors repeatedly led to goals conceded. The standings now leave the team with very little margin for error.
After three rounds, Lesotho have no points, while Niger have three, Gabon six and Morocco nine. The top two teams in the group will qualify for AFCON. Lesotho can still theoretically force their way into the race, with three rounds remaining, but they will need to be flawless from here on. It starts with a win over Gabon; otherwise, even their mathematical hopes of reaching the finals will be gone.
Gabon: Bouanga leads the charge for another AFCON appearance
After a poor start, Gabon have turned things around and now look like one of the leading contenders for the group’s second qualifying spot. Sebastien Migne’s side lost 0-2 to Morocco in the opening round, but then beat Niger 2-0 before repeating that scoreline against Lesotho on November 13.
Crucially, Gabon have bounced back from defeat to the group favourites. The win over Niger restored their confidence, and in their latest meeting with Lesotho they showed their superiority in class. Denis Bouanga was the star of the show, scoring twice.
Overall, Gabon have a stronger squad and can get results through the individual quality of players competing in top overseas leagues. The national team is also going through a period of transition: former captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang retired from international football after the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations.
The upcoming match is a chance for the visitors to strengthen their position in the top two. A win would take Gabon to nine points and preserve their three-point cushion over Niger. A draw would also be a decent result, keeping them ahead of their closest pursuers. But they cannot afford to relax: two rounds remain, and Gabon face Niger in their final group match. For now, the priority is to avoid dropping points against the group’s bottom side.
Probable lineups
- Lesotho: Moerane, Koaene, Mahele, Mkwanazi, Malane, Molaaoa, Phatsisi, Mokhachane, Lesako, Makuru, Motebang.
- Gabon: Amonome, Oyono, Mboula, Marcolino, Ekomie, Lemina, Ndong, Kanga, Allevinah, Averlant, Bouanga.
What’s the best bet?
Despite being the nominal home side, Lesotho will once again have to play away from home, in Polokwane, South Africa. That is unlikely to give Mafoso’s team any meaningful advantage. Gabon look stronger in almost every aspect of the game, beat their opponents just days ago and have a more potent attack. Lesotho will undoubtedly try to play more aggressively, with little room left to retreat, but an open game could make Bouanga and his teammates’ task even easier. I expect the visitors to take control once again and claim the win.
