Flamengo lead Serie A while Corinthians are in deep crisis. Flamengo vs Corinthians prediction
Flamengo and Corinthians will meet on Sunday, 13 September, in the 27th round of the Brazilian Serie A. The match will be played at the Maracanã Stadium in Rio de Janeiro, with kick-off at 22:30 CET. I am backing the winner of this game.
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H2H and statistical facts
• Flamengo have won three consecutive matches without conceding a goal.
• Flamengo are unbeaten in ten consecutive home matches.
• Corinthians have lost four consecutive Serie A matches.
• Flamengo have not lost to Corinthians at home in Serie A since 2022.
On course for a second consecutive title
Flamengo head into the 27th round as the leaders of the Brazilian Serie A. After 26 matches, the team have collected 54 points and are one point ahead of closest challengers Palmeiras. Leonardo Jardim’s side secured top spot with a 1-0 victory over Remo in the previous round. Samuel Lino scored the only goal in the second half, while Flamengo dominated possession and created significantly more chances throughout the match.
The team therefore continue their pursuit of the title and go into their home game against Corinthians in a strong position in the table. Since the league resumed, Flamengo have looked fairly consistent. The team have regularly picked up points and have taken advantage of Palmeiras’ slip-ups in the battle for top spot. The win over Remo was particularly important psychologically: even difficult weather conditions and a heavy pitch did not prevent the favourites from securing the required result.
At the same time, Jardim has urged his players not to relax, with a demanding spell of the season ahead and the concurrent battle in the Copa Libertadores. One of Flamengo’s main strengths remains the quality of their attacking play. Samuel Lino, in particular, has made significant progress: after scoring against Remo, the forward now has five goals in his last six matches.
Another argument in Flamengo’s favour is the Maracanã. The team will play in front of their own supporters while sitting at the top of the table, so motivation is likely to be at its highest. However, the hosts will also have to take their congested schedule into account, which could force Jardim to pay closer attention to managing physical workloads and selecting his team for the game against Corinthians.
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Corinthians caught in a crisis
Corinthians, by contrast, are going through one of their most difficult spells of the season. After 26 rounds, the team have 32 points and sit only 11th in the table. In the previous round, Fernando Diniz’s side lost 2-1 at home to the bottom team in the championship, Chapecoense. Corinthians took the lead as early as the third minute, but then allowed their opponents to score twice. The defeat was the team’s fourth consecutive loss in the league.
The current run is particularly worrying because Corinthians are not losing only to the league’s top sides. The defeat by Chapecoense at home was a major blow for the team and increased the pressure on Diniz. The side have picked up no points in their last four league matches, while their advantage over the teams in the lower part of the table is gradually shrinking. The situation is not yet catastrophic, but further dropped points could turn what is currently a battle for a mid-table position into an entirely different task.
Corinthians’ problems are also evident in attack. The team are capable of creating chances, but too often fail to convert them. Against Chapecoense, the hosts had 62 per cent possession, registered more shots and created four dangerous opportunities, yet ultimately scored only once. It is a paradoxical situation: in terms of their overall play, Corinthians can sometimes look better than their opponents, but defensive mistakes and a lack of efficiency in front of goal are leading to frustrating defeats.
At the same time, the Copa Libertadores remains Corinthians’ main international competition, meaning Diniz will have to find a balance between the need to compete for a trophy and the attempt to halt the team’s slide in the domestic championship.
Probable line-ups
• Flamengo: Rossi, Emerson Royal, Léo Ortiz, Pereira, Lucas, Jorginho, Paquetá, Arrascaeta, Lino, Carrascal, Pedro.
• Corinthians: Souza, Bidu, Henrique, Paulista, Matheuzinho, Bidon, Allan, Raniele, Garro, César, Depay.
What to bet on?
On paper, Flamengo have a significant advantage. The league leaders are playing at home, are in much better form and won their previous match, while Corinthians have suffered four consecutive defeats and are struggling both with scoring goals and defensively. Admittedly, Flamengo’s congested schedule and both teams’ involvement in the Copa Libertadores quarter-finals could somewhat reduce the gap in class. Nevertheless, the hosts have significantly greater depth and should take advantage of their opponents’ crisis. My prediction is Flamengo to win with a -1 goal handicap.
