First test for Amorim. Prediction for Torino vs Milan
In the opening round of the new Serie A season, Torino will host Milan at home. The clash is set for Sunday, August 23rd, in Turin, with kickoff at 20:45 Central European Time. I’m backing a bet on goals in this encounter.
H2H and key stats
- Torino are unbeaten at home in Serie A for six games running, scoring at least twice in each match.
- Milan have kept a clean sheet only once in their last five official matches.
- Both teams have scored in each of the last six head-to-head meetings between these sides.
- Milan have beaten Torino away just twice in the past 14 years.
Another coaching change
Last season, Torino finished 12th in Serie A. For a long stretch, the team sat in the upper half of the table, but a poor run at the end of the campaign dashed any hopes of a higher finish. In the final six rounds, the Turin side picked up just six points, which became one of the reasons for a summer change in management.
As of July 1, Torino officially handed the first team to Ignazio Abate, signing the former Milan defender to a contract through June 2028. For the 39-year-old, this is a major opportunity to prove himself at Serie A level, following a successful spell in charge of Juve Stabia last season.
This summer, Torino focused on reshaping the squad and making targeted upgrades in key positions. The club also worked on refreshing several lines, aiming to maintain a competitive core while giving Abate players who fit his tactical model.
Preseason was primarily a chance for Torino to adapt to the demands of their new coach, so preseason results shouldn’t be overvalued. However, their first official outing was a tough one, but an early goal from Giovanni Simeone was enough to push the "Bulls" into the Coppa Italia round of 32.
The start of a new era under Amorim
Milan enter the new season still reeling from a painful end to last year’s campaign. The team fought for a Champions League spot but stumbled at the finish line, ending the season in fifth place. In their last four matches, the Rossoneri managed just one win, and a loss to Cagliari on the final day sealed their fate, leaving them out of Europe’s premier competition.
After such a result, the club hit the reset button. Massimiliano Allegri was dismissed, along with several key executives. Ruben Amorim was appointed as the new head coach, signing a two-year deal with an option for a third. The Portuguese tactician has been tasked with bringing Milan back to the top of Italian football.
Milan’s transfer window has been nothing short of impressive. The club shored up its defense with Mario Gila and added firepower up front with Gonçalo Ramos, who joined from PSG in a deal worth around €75 million. In addition, Milan secured the signing of Diego Moreira from Strasbourg, and veteran Luka Modric extended his contract with the club through summer 2027.
Preseason offered Amorim several reasons for optimism. Milan wrapped up preparations with a thrilling 4-2 victory over Manchester United, following a tour and a series of friendlies. However, with the coach still instilling his tactical philosophy, Milan shouldn’t be expected to look like a well-oiled machine right out of the gate in competitive matches.
Probable line-ups
- Torino: Paleri, Coco, Gemert, Komuzzo, Kachamani, Pedersen, Gineitis, Fitz-Jim, Casadei, Vlasic, Simeone.
- Milan: Maignan, Pavlovic, Gabbia, Gila, Chukwueze, Bartezaghi, Rabiot, Modric, Saelemaekers, Loftus-Cheek, Ramos.
What’s the bet?
Milan appear to be the favorites thanks to their superior individual quality, significant squad reinforcements, and positive signs in the latter stages of preseason. However, Torino could take advantage of their home ground and Milan’s lack of cohesion under Amorim. The opening round often brings surprises, so I’m expecting a tricky night for the Rossoneri, but I still believe the visitors should come away with all three points.
