Fiorentina vs Bologna prediction, H2H and probable lineups - May 18, 2025
One of the headline clashes of Serie A's Matchday 37 will take place on Sunday at the Artemio Franchi, where local side Fiorentina host Bologna. I’m offering a bet on the outcome of this encounter with an enticing odds value.
Match preview
Fiorentina had a disappointing outing in the previous round, losing 1-2 away to Venezia — their second consecutive defeat and already the eleventh loss of the season. Despite this, the team remains in contention for a top-four finish, sitting ninth with 59 points. The defeat in Venice marked only the second time in the last eight league matches the Viola conceded more than one goal.
At home, Raffaele Palladino’s men look far more solid — four wins and a draw in their last five at the Artemio Franchi, conceding just once during that span. Particularly impressive were the victories over direct rivals: a gritty 1-0 against Atalanta and a commanding 3-0 over Juventus, underlining the squad’s fighting spirit in front of their fans.
Last round, Bologna under Vincenzo Italiano fell 1-3 away to Milan, once again highlighting their late-season inconsistency. That loss made it five matches out of their last six in Serie A without a win — three draws and two defeats — and was also the fourth time in the league they conceded more than twice in a game. Nevertheless, the club still clings to seventh place, just two points adrift of the Champions League spots.
On the road, Bologna have looked lackluster lately: over their last nine Serie A away games, they have managed just two wins — both against strugglers Verona and Venezia. They've also recorded four draws and three defeats, underscoring their struggles away from home, especially against stronger opposition.
Probable lineups
- Fiorentina: David de Gea – Marin Pongracic, Luca Ranieri, Pablo Mari – Dodo, Rolando Mandragora, Nicolo Fagioli, Robin Gosens – Cher Ndour, Amir Richardson, Lucas Beltran
- Bologna: Lukasz Skorupski – Lorenzo De Silvestri, Martin Erlic, Sam Beukema, Charalampos Lykogiannis – Riccardo Orsolini, Remo Freuler, Nikola Moro, Tommaso Pobega, Benja Dominguez – Thijs Dallinga
Match facts and head-to-head
- Bologna won the reverse fixture 1-0
- The "Both teams to score" bet has landed in two of the last five meetings
- The "Over 2.5 goals" bet hit in two of the last five encounters
Prediction
Another factor tilting the scales in favor of the hosts is the head-to-head record: Fiorentina have beaten Bologna in 9 of their last 12 Serie A meetings at home. The home side’s confidence is complemented by their opponents’ fatigue — Bologna endured an exhausting Coppa Italia final midweek, which surely took a toll on their physical condition and recovery. All of this could prove decisive in such a crucial late-season clash. Our pick: “Fiorentina double chance (win or draw)” at odds of 1.58.
