European experience of the hosts versus Irish discipline: prediction for Rijeka vs Derry City – 23.07.2026
On Thursday, July 23, 2026, the HNK Rijeka Stadium will host the first leg of the UEFA Conference League second qualifying round between Croatia’s Rijeka and Ireland’s Derry City. Kickoff is set for 20:45 local time (21:45 Kyiv time). The home side come in as clear favorites, but the two-legged format is likely to prompt Matjaž Kek’s team to play with pragmatism and avoid forcing the issue.
- Also read: Prediction for the match Železničar Pančevo vs Braga: hosts aim to cause an upset - 22.07.2026.
Rijeka: Kek builds a compact, controlling style of play
The Croatian club opens a new European campaign under the guidance of Matjaž Kek. During pre-season, the coaching staff emphasized compactness, aggressive off-the-ball work, and territorial control. Rijeka avoided turning their friendlies into open shootouts.
In three July friendlies, Kek’s team beat Radomlje 2-0, lost 1-2 to Mura, and wrapped up preparations with a 2-0 win over Jadran Dekani. In that last outing, Toni Fruk and Amer Gojak found the net, and the Croatians created enough chances to win by a wider margin.
The match against Jadran also offered a glimpse of the possible starting XI: Todorović, Oreč, Majstorović, Barko, Devetak, Dantas, Pavić, Gojak, Janković, Fruk, and Adu-Adjei. Fruk is expected to be the key link between midfield and attack—capable of speeding up play with his passing, striking from distance, and taking set pieces.
Rijeka boasts significant European experience. Last season, the Croatians reached the Conference League round of 16, where they fell to Strasbourg—losing 1-2 at home and drawing 1-1 away. Most of their European ties were played with caution, especially when the outcome was decided over two legs.
Derry City: Grueling schedule and Boyce returns
The Irish side have already played two European matches this season. In the Europa League’s first qualifying round, Tiernan Lynch’s team lost both legs to CSKA Sofia—2-3 away and 1-2 at home. Derry led in the return leg and had good spells, but individual defensive errors allowed the Bulgarians to turn the game around.
Just days after their European exit, Derry City played a cup tie against Tolka Rovers. Lynch rotated heavily, but his side still triumphed 3-0 thanks to a goal from Adam O’Reilly and an Ellis Chapman brace. Notably, two decisive goals came after the 84th minute.
The big news was Liam Boyce’s return. The experienced striker came on in the 63rd minute and provided an assist. After a long injury layoff, Boyce is unlikely to last the full 90 minutes yet, but he can be a valuable attacking option off the bench in the second half. The club reported no new injuries following the cup match.
Derry’s league form remains challenging. After 25 rounds, they sit sixth in the Irish Premier Division, with just six wins, 11 draws, and eight defeats. Their goal difference is 32:31. These figures explain why, as clear underdogs away from home, Derry are likely to opt for a deep defensive block, midfield battles, and rare counterattacks.
Squad news and probable lineups
Both clubs have submitted their Conference League squads. Rijeka’s list includes Toni Fruk, Amer Gojak, Tiago Dantas, Niko Janković, and Daniel Adu-Adjei. For Derry, Michael Duffy, Ellis Chapman, Adam O’Reilly, James McClean, and the returning Liam Boyce are all available. Midfielder Darragh Markey is out long-term and was not registered for European competition.
- Rijeka: Todorović — Oreč, Majstorović, Barko, Devetak — Dantas, Pavić — Gojak, Fruk, Janković — Adu-Adjei.
- Derry City: Maher — Barr, Grogan, Patrick McClean, Fleming — Cotter, O’Reilly — Olayinka, Chapman, dos Santos — Duffy.
Boyce and Darragh Burns could be key options to strengthen the visitors after halftime.
Match facts
- The return leg will be played in Ireland on July 30, so it’s crucial for the hosts to secure an advantage without leaving space for counterattacks.
- Seven of Rijeka’s last ten official matches have featured no more than two goals.
- The Croatians won two of their three summer friendlies 2-0.
- Derry City conceded five goals in two matches against CSKA, but lost each tie by just a single goal.
- The Irish club played three official matches in the nine days prior to their trip to Croatia.
Rijeka to control the game, but a rout is unlikely: prediction
The gap in class and European pedigree is clear, so a straightforward Rijeka win is priced at just 1.15—hardly enticing for bettors. However, don’t expect the home side to play all-out attacking football, either.
This is the opening leg of a two-legged tie. Kek’s team is still adapting to the new coaching staff’s demands, and their pre-season games were played at a generally measured tempo. Should they take the lead, expect Rijeka to shift to ball control and avoid unnecessary risks ahead of the return trip.
Derry, after their defeats to CSKA, will be especially focused on defense. The visitors will likely pack the central areas, keep their lines tight, and try to preserve a clean sheet for as long as possible. Given their packed schedule, they may lack the energy for a high press throughout, but a cautious game plan could slow proceedings down.
The most logical scenario is a home win by a 1-0 or 2-0 margin.
Prediction: under 2.5 total goals.
