De Zerbi faces his first test and the risk of an upset: prediction for Tottenham vs MK Dons
The friendly clash between Tottenham Hotspur and Milton Keynes Dons is set for July 22 at the Hotspur Way training base in Enfield, England. For Roberto De Zerbi’s side, this will be their first outing of the summer, while the League One guests have already found their rhythm with several high-scoring fixtures under their belt.
Tottenham: new system, a month without match practice
The London club enters the preseason campaign in a somewhat ambiguous state. In 2026, Tottenham have won just six out of 25 matches, but they did claim three victories in their last five outings—beating Everton 1-0, Aston Villa 2-1, and Wolverhampton 1-0.
The main concern for the favorites is their lack of competitive action: the squad hasn’t played in nearly a month. On top of that, Roberto De Zerbi is only beginning to implement his football philosophy, built on possession, aggressive pressing, and risky build-up play from the back. A high number of substitutions could also hamper team cohesion.
MK Dons: high tempo and a prolific preseason
Paul Warne’s men have already played several summer friendlies, winning four of their last five. In their most recent outing, MK Dons thrashed Maidenhead 4-1, and before that, they defeated Tranmere 3-0, Crewe Alexandra 3-1, and Bromley 2-1.
Their only setback during this run came against Croatian side Istra 1961, falling 1-2. Across those five matches, the club netted 13 goals, so their attacking line is clearly capable of capitalizing on errors from opponents still adjusting to their new head coach’s demands.
Match facts and head-to-heads
- Tottenham have won only six of their 25 matches in 2026.
- MK Dons have won four of their last five preseason games.
- MK Dons have scored in each of their last five summer matches, netting 13 goals in total.
The favorite should win, but not with a clean sheet: Tottenham vs MK Dons prediction
The difference in class between the two sides is obvious. Bookmakers give Tottenham about a 71% chance of victory, with odds for the Londoners hovering around 1.28. Even if they’re not at peak fitness, the individual quality of the Premier League squad should be the decisive factor.
However, backing the favorite to win outright isn’t the most enticing option. MK Dons are in good form, scoring consistently, and could find opportunities if Tottenham slip up in possession. The best bet appears to be a Tottenham win with both teams scoring, while an additional option is over 2.5 total goals.
