Ceuta vs Cádiz: prediction, head-to-head, and probable line-ups – 28 March 2026
AD Ceuta FC
One of Saturday’s fixtures in the Segunda Division will be staged in Ceuta, where the local side hosts Cádiz at the Alfonso Murube Stadium. I suggest taking a closer look at a bet on the home team in this clash, because despite recent setbacks, Ceuta have looked far more convincing on their own turf and still have a realistic shot at staying in the promotion race.
Match preview
Ceuta head into this fixture with a bitter taste from recent weeks, as the team noticeably stalled at the worst possible moment. After a run of three consecutive victories, the hosts have failed to pick up a single point in their last three outings: suffering a heavy 0-4 loss to Las Palmas, then falling 0-1 to Deportivo, and in their most recent match, losing 2-5 to Leganés in a wild shootout.
Still, the team’s situation is far from hopeless and actually calls for the right reaction here and now. Ceuta remain in the top ten, just six points adrift of the playoff zone, and their home record is still one of the toughest in the league: 10 wins and 1 draw in 15 matches on their own ground – that’s no coincidence, but a well-established pattern.
Cádiz arrive in Ceuta as a team still trying to piece themselves back together after a winter slump. The visitors’ season started promisingly, but since the turn of the year their momentum has dropped off so dramatically that the club opted for a managerial change, yet Sergio González’s arrival has not yet sparked an immediate turnaround.
Yes, they managed to win the first match under the new coach, but that was quickly followed by a painful 0-3 home defeat to Málaga, which once again highlighted old issues. Cádiz have scored just 31 goals in 31 rounds, making them one of the least prolific sides in the division, so in matches where they need to grind out results and make the most of limited chances, they too often suffocate under their own pressure.
Probable line-ups
- Ceuta: Ahmed, Bodiger, Redruello, Hernández, Younes, Vallejo, González, Matos García, Illescas, Fernández Sánchez, Koné.
- Cádiz: Gil, Carcelén, Moreno, Ortega, Pereira, Ortuño, Diakité, Suso, Diarra, Cordero, Pascual.
Match facts and head-to-head
- Ceuta have lost their last three matches in a row, falling to Las Palmas 0-4, Deportivo 0-1, and Leganés 2-5.
- Cádiz have scored 31 goals in 31 rounds; only four teams in the league have a worse attacking record.
- These sides have met eight times: Ceuta have just one win, Cádiz have four, and the first-round match ended in a goalless draw.
Prediction
This is one of those cases where the hosts’ recent form is concerning, but the context of the match still nudges things in their favor. Ceuta are simply too strong at home to completely collapse on their own pitch, while Cádiz do not look like a team currently capable of confidently punishing opponents in away positional battles. I expect a tough, scrappy, and at times nervy encounter, where much will be decided in duels and second-ball battles. The home side have just a bit more inner resilience here, thanks to the home advantage.
