Celta vs PAOK: prediction, head-to-head and probable lineups – 26 February 2026
The second leg of the 2025/26 UEFA Europa League Round of 32 will take place on Thursday in Vigo at the Balaídos stadium, where Celta will host Greek side PAOK. The first meeting in Thessaloniki ended with a 2-1 victory for the Spaniards, putting the Galicians just one step away from advancing to the next stage. Here’s my take on the outcome of this clash.
- See also: Nottingham Forest vs Fenerbahce: prediction, head-to-head and probable lineups – 26 February 2026
Match preview
The team from Vigo went through a minor slump mid-season, but now they’re showing signs of stability. The win over PAOK in Greece (2-1), where Celta led by two goals and could’ve scored a third, followed by a confident La Liga victory over Mallorca (2-0), proved the squad is getting stronger physically and mentally. Iago Aspas, in particular, has been outstanding – 3+1 in his last two matches and involved in all four of his team’s recent goals.
Squad-wise, things are nearly perfect: Núñez, Sotelo, and Starfelt are back in action, with only Pablo Durán—who isn’t a regular starter – remaining out. Celta are growing more confident at home, boasting five wins in their last six matches at Balaídos, and three victories from four home games in this Europa League campaign. Incidentally, PAOK have already left Vigo with a 1-3 defeat in the group stage.
The Greek side are enduring a tough spell. In their last five matches, the Black and Whites have just one win, and after losing to Celta, they drew 1-1 with Larisa, a team fighting relegation. In the first leg against the Spaniards, PAOK managed just 0.62 xG at home despite trying to take the initiative – doing so away will be even more challenging.
The main issue is a catastrophic injury crisis. Eight players are sidelined, including Konstantelias, Despodov, Taison, Meite, and first-choice goalkeeper Pavlenka. Top assist provider Andrija Živković is suspended, and Giakoumakis’ return doesn’t offset the losses across the lineup. In European knockout ties, PAOK have been extremely weak on the road – four defeats in their last five away matches, with their last win dating back to 2022.
Probable lineups
- Celta: Radu; Alonso, Aidoo, Fernandez; Alvarez, Moriba, Vecino, Rueda; Svedberg, Aspas, Iglesias.
- PAOK: Tsiftsis; Taylor, Kedziora, Michailidis, Kenny; Ozdoev, Camara; Yeremeyev, Zafeiris, Chatzidis; Giakoumakis.
Match facts and head-to-head
- In the first leg in Greece, Celta won 2-1, having led by two goals during the match.
- In the group stage of this Europa League, Celta also beat PAOK at home 3-1.
- PAOK haven’t won an away knockout match in European competitions since 2022.
Prediction
Celta approach this game in great shape, with their leader in top form and almost a full squad available. PAOK, on the other hand, travel to Spain with a seriously weakened lineup and a poor away record. Given the current balance of factors, the hosts should be able to control the match and see out the tie comfortably.
