Casablanca instead of Nouakchott: Mauritania vs Central African Republic prediction - 24.09.2026
On Thursday, September 24, 2026, Mauritania will face the Central African Republic in the opening round of the 2027 Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers. The Group F encounter will take place at Stade Larbi Zaouli in Casablanca, Morocco, with kick-off scheduled for 16:00 GMT. Although Mauritania are officially the hosts, they will have to play outside their home country because their national stadiums have not received the necessary approval to stage international matches.
Mauritania: A fresh start under López Garai
Mauritania enter the new qualifying campaign with an opportunity to rebuild their confidence after an inconsistent run of results. The Mourabitounes endured a difficult conclusion to their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign, but their most recent international fixtures have provided some encouragement.
In March, Mauritania suffered a narrow 2-1 defeat against Argentina. They subsequently held Angola to a 1-1 draw in June before defeating Niger 1-0 in their most recent friendly. Although attacking efficiency remains an issue, these performances suggest that Mauritania are capable of competing when they maintain their defensive discipline.
Head coach Aritz López Garai has named a 27-man squad for the opening AFCON qualifiers, combining established internationals with several new faces.
Aboubacary Koïta remains one of the team's most important attacking players, while Djeidi Gassama, Papa Ndiaga Yade and Mamadou Diallo provide additional options in the final third. Mohsine Bodda and Abdallahi Mahmoud offer experience in midfield, with Aly Abeid and Jordan Lefort among the defensive options.
The squad also includes three players receiving their first senior international call-ups: Mohamed-Ali Diadié, Baïla Diallo and Abdoullah Ba.
However, Mauritania will be without talented midfielder Beyatt Lekoueiry, who suffered a serious knee ligament injury.
The main concern for López Garai is his team's limited attacking productivity. Mauritania have scored only three goals in their last five international matches, making defensive stability particularly important.
The decision to stage the match in Casablanca also removes the traditional advantage of playing in front of a home crowd. Nevertheless, Mauritania have experience of competing at this venue and will be looking to start their qualification campaign with three points.
Central African Republic: Kondogbia's absence complicates the task
The Central African Republic are also entering the qualifying campaign after an unconvincing sequence of performances.
The Fauves finished their 2026 World Cup qualifying campaign with a 3-2 victory over Chad, but their June friendlies exposed familiar problems. They drew 1-1 with Togo before suffering a comprehensive 3-0 defeat against Angola.
The defensive record is particularly concerning. The Central African Republic have conceded 13 goals in their last five international matches, including five against Ghana and three against Angola.
Head coach Eloge Enza-Yamissi has announced a 26-man squad for the opening qualifiers. His selection includes forwards Louis Mafouta, Goduine Koyalipou and Vénuste Baboula, while Junior Sambia and Hugo Gambor are among the midfield options.
However, the visitors will be missing an important figure in midfield. Captain Geoffrey Kondogbia has not been included in the squad because of injury.
His absence deprives the Central African Republic of an experienced player capable of protecting the defence and helping the team retain possession under pressure.
The visitors will therefore need to maintain a compact defensive structure and make the most of their opportunities on the counterattack.
Despite their recent difficulties, the Central African Republic have already demonstrated that they can cause problems for Mauritania. In June 2025, they recorded a 2-1 friendly victory over the Mourabitounes at the same stadium in Casablanca.
Match facts and head-to-head record
- Mauritania have won three of the four previous meetings between the two national teams.
- Three of those four encounters have finished with fewer than three goals.
- Mauritania defeated the Central African Republic 1-0 at the African Nations Championship in August 2025.
- Mauritania have scored three goals in their last five international matches.
- The Central African Republic have conceded 13 goals in their last five international matches.
- Both teams have recorded just one victory in their last five international fixtures.
Mauritania's defensive discipline could make the difference: match prediction
This encounter promises to be a closely contested battle between two teams looking to establish themselves in Group F.
Mauritania have not been particularly convincing in attack, but their recent performances against Angola and Niger suggest that they can keep matches under control against opponents of a similar level.
The Central African Republic possess enough attacking quality to create problems, particularly through Mafouta and Koyalipou. However, their defensive vulnerability and the absence of Kondogbia could leave them exposed against a Mauritanian side capable of capitalizing on mistakes.
The neutral venue reduces Mauritania's home advantage, while the visitors' victory in Casablanca last year provides an additional reason not to underestimate them.
Nevertheless, the Mourabitounes have a stronger head-to-head record and a more encouraging recent defensive record. Their experienced squad should be capable of exploiting the visitors' weaknesses and securing a narrow victory in the opening round of qualification.
Prediction: Mauritania to win.
