Can the Madrid giant stop the Serbs’ perfect start? Real Madrid vs Partizan prediction
Real Madrid
KK Partizan Belgrade
Real Madrid and Partizan will meet in the fourth round of the EuroLeague regular season. The game will be played at Movistar Arena in Madrid on October 8 and will tip off at 20:45 CET. I am backing a winner in this matchup.
Head-to-head and statistical facts
- Real Madrid have lost four consecutive EuroLeague games.
- Partizan have won all four of their games this season, with three of those victories coming in the EuroLeague.
- The Serbs are on a five-game winning streak.
- Real Madrid have beaten Partizan in nine consecutive head-to-head meetings.
Real Madrid
The start of the new season has been unexpectedly difficult for the Madrid side. In the first three rounds of the EuroLeague, Pedro Martínez’s team lost to Dubai Basketball — 77:78, Anadolu Efes — 84:94, and Hapoel Tel Aviv — 98:102. As a result, Real Madrid head into their home meeting with Partizan at 0-3, despite averaging a fairly high number of points.
The Madrid side’s main problem right now is defensive inconsistency. At the same time, the team scores plenty: across their three EuroLeague games, Real Madrid have averaged 86.3 points. However, their opponents are being given too many attacking opportunities, while Madrid are committing an average of 13.7 turnovers per game. Against Hapoel, the team scored 98 points, but even that was not enough to secure victory.
The situation is noticeably better in the domestic league. Real Madrid have won both of their opening Liga Endesa games: 89:87 at home against Unicaja, followed by a 114:107 overtime win away to Obradoiro. Their scoring output is particularly impressive, with the Madrid side putting up 203 points over the two games. However, those matchups exposed the same issue as in the EuroLeague — the team still does not look reliable enough defensively.
For Real Madrid, the meeting with Partizan is something of a test for a new project. The offseason brought major changes to the roster, while Pedro Martínez is still building a new system. One of the biggest positives has been Theo Maledon, who is already showing a high level and could become a key figure in the offense. Playing at home, Madrid desperately need to finally get their first EuroLeague win on the board.
Partizan
The Serbian team, by contrast, have made an almost perfect start to their European campaign. Partizan have beaten Olimpia Milano — 92:76, Paris Basketball — 92:79, and Bayern Munich — 86:84 in succession. After three rounds, Željko Obradović’s team remain unbeaten and are among the EuroLeague leaders.
The win over Bayern was particularly telling. Partizan trailed 57:65 after three quarters, but produced a powerful surge in the final period and scored 29 points. Carlik Jones was one of the heroes down the stretch, scoring 12 of his 16 points in the fourth quarter alone. The game showed that the Serbs can keep their composure even in tense finishes.
Another major strength of Partizan is their offensive efficiency. Across their first three EuroLeague games, the team averaged 90 points per game while shooting 52.1% from the field. At the same time, they held their opponents to an average of 79.7 points. Compared with Real Madrid, that is a significant edge in the balance between offense and defense.
Partizan have also made a strong start to the domestic season. In the ABA League, the Serbs comfortably defeated Mega — 83:59. Ethan Thompson scored 21 points and grabbed seven rebounds in his tournament debut. Overall, Partizan currently look like a more cohesive and confident team than their upcoming opponents.
What should you bet on?
The recent head-to-head record favors Real Madrid: the Spanish side have won their last five EuroLeague meetings with Partizan. However, the teams’ current form calls for a more cautious approach to that factor. Real are still searching for their game, while Partizan have made a confident start and have already shown they can win games in different ways. Home-court advantage and the need to finally end their losing streak make Real a dangerous opponent, so I am backing the hosts to win with a -5-point handicap.
